Modelling housing need in Australia to 2025

Abstract

AHURI is a national independent research network with an expert not-for-profit research management company, AHURI Limited, at its centre. AHURI's mission is to deliver high quality research that influences policy development and practice change to improve the housing and urban environments of all Australians.Using high quality, independent evidence and through active, managed engagement, AHURI works to inform the policies and practices of governments and the housing and urban development industries, and stimulate debate in the broader Australian community. AHURI undertakes evidence-based policy development on a range of priority policy topics that are of interest to our audience groups, including housing and labour markets, urban growth and renewal, planning and infrastructure development, housing supply and affordability, homelessness, economic productivity, and social cohesion and wellbeing.This material was produced with funding from the Australian Government and state and territory governments. AHURI Limited gratefully acknowledges the financial and other support it has received from these governments, without which this work would not have been possible. AHURI Limited also gratefully acknowledges the contributions, both financial and in-kind, of its university research partners who have helped make the completion of this material possible.This paper uses unit record data from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey. The HILDA Project was initiated and is funded by the Australian Government Department of Families, Housing, Community Services and Indigenous Affairs (FaHCSIA) and is managed by the Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research (Melbourne Institute). The findings and views reported in this paper, however, are those of the author and should not be attributed to either FaHCSIA or the Melbourne Institute. DisclaimerThe opinions in this report reflect the views of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of AHURI Limited, its Board or its funding organisations. No responsibility is accepted by AHURI Limited, its Board or funders for the accuracy or omission of any statement, opinion, advice or information in this publication. AHURI journalAHURI Final Report journal series is a refereed series presenting the results of original research to a diverse readership of policy-makers, researchers and practitioners. Peer review statementAn objective assessment of reports published in the AHURI journal series by carefully selected experts in the field ensures that material published is of the highest quality. The AHURI journal series employs a double-blind peer review of the full report, where anonymity is strictly observed between authors and referees.

Inquiry into increasing affordable housing supply: Evidence-based principles and strategies for Australian policy and practice

“…This is the Final Report of an AHURI Inquiry into the range of strategies and initiatives that governments have used to leverage affordable housing supply in a constrained funding and increasingly market-driven context. With existing levels of social housing insufficient to meet current and projected needs, an estimated deficit of over 200,000 affordable dwellings, and mounting barriers to first home ownership, the need for significant reform and innovation across the governance, policy and financial parameters framing affordable housing supply is widely recognised (Yates 2016, Ong, Dalton et al 2017, Rowley, Leishman et al 2017.…”

Paying for affordable housing in different market contexts

“…With access to housing becoming increasingly difficult for lower income households (Hulse, Reynolds et al 2015;Rowley, Leishman, et al 2017;Yates 2017) The Inquiry comprised a program of three complementary research projects that were designed to build a progressive evidence base to address the above question. The analytical focus of the project reported here has been the financing of specific housing projects and the affordability outcomes achieved.…”

Pathways to housing tax reform

“…Current housing need 1 in Australia is estimated to be 1.3 million households (just under 14% of all households) and will rise to 1.7 million households by 2025 due to a significant ongoing and future shortage of affordable housing. This will place increasing pressure on government housing assistance budgets, especially with regard to the private rental market (Rowley, Leishman et al 2017). Low-income households and households living in private rental are particularly vulnerable to housing stress 2 (Yates and Gabriel 2006;Yates, Milligan et al 2007).…”