Modelling Late Miocene vegetation in Europe: Results of the CARAIB model and comparison with palaeovegetation data

François, Louis; Utescher, Torsten; Favre, Éric; Henrot, Alexandra; Warnant, Pierre; Micheels, A.; Erdei, Boglárka; Suc, Jean‐Pierre; Cheddadi, Rachid; Mosbrugger, Volker

doi:10.1016/j.palaeo.2011.01.012

Cited by 59 publications

(49 citation statements)

References 62 publications

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“…Model vegetation distribution maps have also been validated globally (Otto et al, 2002). Here, a globally validated classification of plant functional types (PFT) is used (updated from François et al, 2011). Finally, the WITCH weathering model has been used to simulate water-mineral interactions in various environments, from polar to tropical settings (Goddéris et al, 2006;Roelandt et al, 2010;Violette et al, 2010;Beaulieu et al, 2011).…”

Section: Model Settingsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Rates of consumption of atmospheric CO2 through the weathering of loess during the next 100 yr of climate change

Goddéris

Brantley

François³

et al. 2013

Biogeosciences

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Abstract. Quantifying how C fluxes will change in the future is a complex task for models because of the coupling between climate, hydrology, and biogeochemical reactions. Here we investigate how pedogenesis of the Peoria loess, which has been weathering for the last 13 kyr, will respond over the next 100 yr of climate change. Using a cascade of numerical models for climate (ARPEGE), vegetation (CARAIB) and weathering (WITCH), we explore the effect of an increase in CO 2 of 315 ppmv (1950) to 700 ppmv (2100 projection). The increasing CO 2 results in an increase in temperature along the entire transect. In contrast, drainage increases slightly for a focus pedon in the south but decreases strongly in the north. These two variables largely determine the behavior of weathering. In addition, although CO 2 production rate increases in the soils in response to global warming, the rate of diffusion back to the atmosphere also increases, maintaining a roughly constant or even decreasing CO 2 concentration in the soil gas phase. Our simulations predict that temperature increasing in the next 100 yr causes the weathering rates of the silicates to increase into the future. In contrast, the weathering rate of dolomite -which consumes most of the CO 2 -decreases in both end members (south and north) of the transect due to its retrograde solubility. We thus infer slower rates of advance of the dolomite reaction front into the subsurface, and faster rates of advance of the silicate reaction front. However, additional simulations for 9 pedons located along the north-south transect show that the dolomite weathering advance rate will increase in the central part of the Mississippi Valley, owing to a maximum in the response of vertical drainage to the ongoing climate change.The carbonate reaction front can be likened to a terrestrial lysocline because it represents a depth interval over which carbonate dissolution rates increase drastically. However, in contrast to the lower pH and shallower lysocline expected in the oceans with increasing atmospheric CO 2 , we predict a deeper lysocline in future soils. Furthermore, in the central Mississippi Valley, soil lysocline deepening accelerates but in the south and north the deepening rate slows. This result illustrates the complex behavior of carbonate weathering facing short term global climate change. Predicting the global response of terrestrial weathering to increased atmospheric CO 2 and temperature in the future will mostly depend upon our ability to make precise assessments of which areas of the globe increase or decrease in precipitation and soil drainage.

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Section: Model Settingsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Rates of consumption of atmospheric CO2 through the weathering of loess during the next 100 yr of climate change

Goddéris

Brantley

François³

et al. 2013

Biogeosciences

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“…The work of François et al (2011) offers a method for determining agreement between palaeobotanical data and simulated vegetation which percentage agreement per PFT based on presence-absence. These per-PFT scores could conceivably be combined to produce overall agreement scores, taking care that PFTs which are mostly absent from the fossil record do not unduly affect the final result.…”

Section: Discussion Of Previous Quantitative Approachesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…a relatively simpler but global PFT set). By means of example, there are eight purely temperate PFTs in the CARAIB version used in François et al (2011) compared to only two in the default LPJ-GUESS configuration and four in the configuration used in our study. Thus by exploiting a high degree of taxonomic precision, presence-absence data were used effectively in the regional study of François et al In the global study presented here, each PFT spans a much larger geographical extent and there are fewer PFTs at each site for which to make a presence-absence comparison.…”

Section: Discussion Of Previous Quantitative Approachesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate-vegetation modelling and fossil plant data suggest low atmospheric CO2 in the late Miocene

et al. 2015

Self Cite

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Abstract. There is an increasing need to understand the preQuaternary warm climates, how climate-vegetation interactions functioned in the past, and how we can use this information to understand the present. Here we report vegetation modelling results for the Late Miocene (11-7 Ma) to study the mechanisms of vegetation dynamics and the role of different forcing factors that influence the spatial patterns of vegetation coverage. One of the key uncertainties is the atmospheric concentration of CO 2 during past climates. Estimates for the last 20 million years range from 280 to 500 ppm. We simulated Late Miocene vegetation using two plausible CO 2 concentrations, 280 ppm CO 2 and 450 ppm CO 2 , with a dynamic global vegetation model (LPJ-GUESS) driven by climate input from a coupled AOGCM (Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model). The simulated vegetation was compared to existing plant fossil data for the whole Northern Hemisphere. For the comparison we developed a novel approach that uses information of the relative dominance of different plant functional types (PFTs) in the palaeobotanical data to provide a quantitative estimate of the agreement between the simulated and reconstructed vegetation. Based on this quantitative assessment we find that pre-industrial CO 2 levels are largely consistent with the presence of seasonal temperate forests in Europe (suggested by fossil data) and open vegetation in North America (suggested by multiple lines of evidence). This suggests that during the Late Miocene the CO 2 levels have been relatively low, or that other factors that are not included in the models maintained the seasonal temperate forests and open vegetation.

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“…The first model, CARAIB (CARbon Assimilation In the Biosphere) is a physically based DGVM developed to study the role of the vegetation in the global carbon cycle (Warnant et al 1994;Gérard et al 1999) and to study the vegetation distributions in the past (François et al 1998(François et al , 2011Henrot et al 2016), in the present and in the future (Laurent et al 2008;Dury et al 2011). The second model, ISBA CC (Interaction Soil-Biosphere-Atmosphere -Carbon Cycle) simulates the exchange of water, energy and carbon between the land surface and the atmosphere (Noilhan & Mahfouf 1996;Gibelin et al 2008;Masson et al 2013).…”

Section: Model Selection Set-up and Simulation Protocolmentioning

confidence: 99%

Combining multiple statistical methods to evaluate the performance of process-based vegetation models across three forest stands

Horemans¹,

Henrot

Delire³

et al. 2017

Central European Forestry Journal

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Process-based vegetation models are crucial tools to better understand biosphere-atmosphere exchanges and ecophysiological responses to climate change. In this contribution the performance of two global dynamic vegetation models, i.e. CARAIB and ISBA CC , and one stand-scale forest model, i.e. 4C, was compared to long-term observed net ecosystem carbon exchange (NEE) time series from eddy covariance monitoring stations at three old-grown European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) forest stands. Residual analysis, wavelet analysis and singular spectrum analysis were used beside conventional scalar statistical measures to assess model performance with the aim of defining future targets for model improvement. We found that the most important errors for all three models occurred at the edges of the observed NEE distribution and the model errors were correlated with environmental variables on a daily scale. These observations point to possible projection issues under more extreme future climate conditions. Recurrent patterns in the residuals over the course of the year were linked to the approach to simulate phenology and physiological evolution during leaf development and senescence. Substantial model errors occurred on the multi-annual time scale, possibly caused by the lack of inclusion of management actions and disturbances. Other crucial processes defined were the forest structure and the vertical light partitioning through the canopy. Further, model errors were shown not to be transmitted from one time scale to another. We proved that models should be evaluated across multiple sites, preferably using multiple evaluation methods, to identify processes that request reconsideration.

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Modelling Late Miocene vegetation in Europe: Results of the CARAIB model and comparison with palaeovegetation data

Cited by 59 publications

References 62 publications

Rates of consumption of atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> through the weathering of loess during the next 100 yr of climate change

Rates of consumption of atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> through the weathering of loess during the next 100 yr of climate change

Climate-vegetation modelling and fossil plant data suggest low atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> in the late Miocene

Combining multiple statistical methods to evaluate the performance of process-based vegetation models across three forest stands

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Modelling Late Miocene vegetation in Europe: Results of the CARAIB model and comparison with palaeovegetation data

Cited by 59 publications

References 62 publications

Rates of consumption of atmospheric CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; through the weathering of loess during the next 100 yr of climate change

Rates of consumption of atmospheric CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; through the weathering of loess during the next 100 yr of climate change

Climate-vegetation modelling and fossil plant data suggest low atmospheric CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; in the late Miocene

Combining multiple statistical methods to evaluate the performance of process-based vegetation models across three forest stands

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About

Rates of consumption of atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> through the weathering of loess during the next 100 yr of climate change

Rates of consumption of atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> through the weathering of loess during the next 100 yr of climate change

Climate-vegetation modelling and fossil plant data suggest low atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> in the late Miocene