Modelling Long-Term Transition from Coal-Reliant to Low-Emission Power Grid and District Heating Systems in Poland

Abstract

Energy systems require technological changes towards climate neutrality. In Poland, where the power system is dominated by outdated coal-fired power plants, efforts to minimize the environmental impact are associated with high costs. Therefore, optimal paths for the development of the energy sector should be sought in order to achieve ambitious long-term strategic goals, while minimizing the negative impact on the consumers’ home budget. A methodology and a model for the development of the electricity and heat generation structure were developed and implemented in market allocation (MARKAL) modelling framework. Two scenarios were presented, i.e., business as usual (BAU) and withdrawal from coal (WFC) scenarios. The calculations showed a significant role of nuclear energy and offshore wind power in the pursuit of climate neutrality of electricity generation. In the BAU scenario, the model proposes to stay with coal technologies using carbon capture and storage systems. Withdrawal from coal (WFC scenario) makes it necessary to replace them by gas-fired power plants with CO2 sequestration. Solar energy can be used both in electricity and district heating. In order to build on the latter technological option, appropriate energy storage techniques must be developed. Geothermal energy is expected to be the key option for district heat generation in the long-term horizon. The proposed development paths guarantee a significant reduction in greenhouse gases and industrial emissions. However, complete climate neutrality is uncertain, given the current degree and dynamics of technological development.

The Role of Nuclear Energy in Reducing Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions and Energy Security: A Systematic Review

“…The research revealed that nuclear energy and offshore wind power play a substantial role in achieving climate neutrality in electricity generation. The projected development paths ensure a significant reduction in greenhouse gases and industrial emissions [77].…”

Strategic Decision-Making for Multi-Period Fleet Transition Towards Zero-Emission: Preliminary Study

“…Moreover, all the investments needed to reach that balance by the end of the planning horizon are optimally distributed across the planning period, so that the total surplus is maximized. The MARKALbased framework was widely utilized to assess developmental directions and the velocity of technological transition mainly for the energy sector, also towards its decarbonization, in Canada [28,29], Switzerland [30], Malaysia [31], Russia [32], the UK [33][34][35][36], the USA [37,38], Austria [39], China [40][41][42][43], Portugal [44][45][46], Italy [47], Iran [48], Turkey [49], Kazakhstan [50], Ireland [51], Poland [52], Greece [53], and Bulgaria [39].…”

Comparative analysis of district heating markets: examining recent prices, regulatory frameworks, and pricing control mechanisms in Poland and selected neighbouring countries

“…Pająk et al (2020) reviewed geological and hydrogeological data to assess the potential of geothermal water resources to cover the heating needs in Poland. Jaskólski and Bućko (2021) modeled a long-term transition from coal-dependent systems to low-emissions alternatives, identifying geothermal energy as a potential means to achieve long-term decarbonization goals. Kinelski et al (2021) proposed the application of smart technologies to lower emissions from district heating, estimating a reduction of approximately 275 kt of CO 2 due to the proposed changes.…”