Modelling NAFLD disease burden in four Asian regions—2019‐2030

Abstract

Summary Background Non‐alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and non‐alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) account for an increasing proportion of liver disease in the Asia‐Pacific region. Many areas in the region are experiencing epidemics of metabolic syndrome among rapidly ageing populations. Aims To estimate using modelling the growth in NAFLD populations, including cases with significant fibrosis that are most likely to experience advanced liver disease and related mortality. Methods A disease progression model was used to summarise and project fibrosis progression among the NAFLD populations of Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan. For each area, changes in the adult prevalence of obesity was used to extrapolate long‐term trends in NAFLD incidence. Results In the areas studied, prevalent NAFLD cases were projected to increase 6%‐20% during 2019‐2030, while prevalent NASH cases increase 20%‐35%. Incident cases of hepatocellular carcinoma are projected to increase by 65%‐85%, while incident decompensated cirrhosis cases increase 65%‐100% by 2030. Likewise, NAFLD‐related mortality is projected to increase between 65% and 100% from 2019 to 2030. NAFLD disease burden is expected to increase alongside rising trends in metabolic syndrome and obesity among populations in the region. This leads to more cases of advanced liver disease and associated mortality. Conclusions Preventing the growth of diabetic and obese populations will be a key factor in reducing ongoing increases in NAFLD‐related disease burden in the Asia‐Pacific region.

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease

“…19 Importantly, the disease and economic burden of NAFLD will probably increase during the coming decades. 20,21 Health-care utilisation and expenditure are particularly high among patients with NAFLD and advanced fibrosis or type 2 diabetes and those requiring hospital admis sion. 22,23 Little information is available regarding the effect of NAFLD on patients' daily lives, 24 which will be important data to collect in future intervention or treatment studies.…”

The Evaluation of Drug Delivery Nanocarrier Development and Pharmacological Briefing for Metabolic-Associated Fatty Liver Disease (MAFLD): An Update

“…Interestingly, MAFLD impacts children’s health in an asymptomatic profile that is incidentally diagnosed at a mean age of 11–13 years [ 21 , 22 , 23 ]. Overall, MAFLD mortality is escalating [ 24 ] with an estimated rise between 65% and 100% from 2019 to 2030 in the Asia-Pacific region alone [ 25 ], as well as the US, China, and France, which is combined with an alarming MAFLD predicted prevalence escalation to occur in Germany, Italy and the UK by 2030 [ 26 ].…”

Editorial: increasing burden of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease—a call to action

“…Non‐alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) causes significant economic burden 1 and impairment of health‐related quality of life 2 . Estes et al reported the projected burden of non‐alcoholic liver disease (NAFLD) based on Markov modelling in four developed Asian countries during 2019‐2030 3 . Over the 12‐year period, prevalent NAFLD cases would increase between 6% and 20%, while prevalent non‐alcoholic steatohepatitis cases would increase between 20% and 35%.…”