Modelling the Development Dynamics of Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises in Russia

Abstract

The paper explores the factors in the development of small and medium-sized entrepreneurship (SME) in Russia over the past 13 years. The purpose of the article is to identify the patterns and current trends in the dynamics of the number of SMEs. The present study carries out correlation and regression analysis of the factors using the statistical data for 2006–2018. The number of the employed and the average nominal wage are the factors that exert a positive effect on the number of small enterprises, whereas tax burden, the weighted average rate for short-term loans and the inflation rate have a negative impact. The research results allowed forecasting the development dynamics of SMEs for 2020–2024. Providing that Russia follows the basic scenario of the socio-economic development and the existing trends persist, the total number of SMEs is expected to grow to 3,636 thousand (1.37 times) by 2024.