Modelling the Implications of Temperature on the Life Cycle of Aedes aegypti Mosquitoes

Rossi, Marcelo Margon; Olívêr, Lêuda; Massad, Eduardo

doi:10.1007/978-3-319-06877-0_4

Cited by 7 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 43 publications

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“…In short, an ideal range for survival and development through all phases of the mosquito life cycle occurs, for example, at 20–30 °C, as stated in [ 44 ]. The development of mosquitoes is often slower in both cooler and higher temperatures [ 41 , 42 ], although the critical limiting values may be different [ 15 ]. Temperature is also a key component in the ecology of DENV in that increasing temperature can accelerate viral replication within the vector and shorten the extrinsic incubation period (EIP) [ 45 , 46 ].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk factors spatial-temporal detection for dengue fever in Guangzhou

Kong

et al. 2018

Epidemiol. Infect.

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Dengue fever (DF) has been a growing public-health concern in China since its emergence in Guangdong Province in 1978. Of all the regions that have experienced dengue outbreaks in mainland China, the city of Guangzhou is the most affected. This study aims to investigate the potential risk factors for dengue virus (DENV) transmission in Guangzhou, China, from 2006 to 2014. The impact of risk factors on DENV transmission was qualified by the q-values calculated using a novel spatial-temporal method, the GeoDetector model. Both climatic and socioeconomic factors were considered. The impacts on DF incidence of each single factor and the interaction of two factors were analysed. The results show that the number of days with rainfall of the month before last has the highest determinant power, with a q-value of 0.898 (P < 0.01); the q-values of the other factors related to temperature and precipitation were around 0.38–0.50. Integrating a Pearson correlation analysis, nonlinear associations were found between the DF incidence in Guangzhou and the climatic factors considered. The coupled impact of the different variables considered was enhanced compared with their individual effects. In addition, an increased number of tourists in the city were associated with a high incidence of DF. This study demonstrates that the number of rain days in a month has great influence on the DF incidence of the month after next; the temperature and precipitation have nonlinear impacts on the DF incidence in Guangzhou; both the domestic and overseas tourists coming to the city increase the risk of DENV transmission. These findings are useful in the risk assessment of DENV transmission, to predict DF outbreaks and to implement preventive DF reduction strategies.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk factors spatial-temporal detection for dengue fever in Guangzhou

Kong

et al. 2018

Epidemiol. Infect.

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“…aegypti lifecycle as well as its relevance to disease incidence. 43 Assumptions used to adapt these equations to the underlying population model included employing literature-derived values for oviposition (63 eggs daily per female) and excluding the consideration of carrying capacity for egg laying. 44 Field studies of wMel replacement interventions in the Cairns region informed the deployment schedule used for the simulations, where model releases paralleled reality to occur every seven timesteps from day 4 through day 63.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

wMelreplacement of dengue-competent mosquitoes is robust to near-term climate change

Vásquez

Kueppers

Rašić

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Rising temperatures and increasing temperature variability are impacting the range and prevalence of mosquito-borne disease. A promising biocontrol technology replaces wild mosquitoes with those carrying the virus-blocking Wolbachia bacterium. Laboratory and field observations show that the most widely used strain, wMel, is adversely affected by heat stress. Here, we examine whether and how climate warming may impact wMel-based replacement. We integrate empirical data on the temperature sensitivity of wMel bacteria into a mechanistic model of population dynamics for the dengue vector Aedes aegypti and use CMIP5 climate projections and historical temperature records from Cairns, Australia to simulate vector control interventions. We show that higher mean temperatures are predicted to lower wMel infection frequency and that extended heatwaves have the potential to reverse the public health benefits of this intervention. Sensitivity analysis probing the thermal limits of wMel replacement reveal that, under existing projections, operational adaptations would be required for heatwaves lasting longer than two weeks. We conclude that this technology is expected to be robust to both the increased mean temperatures and heatwaves associated with near-term climate change in temperate regions. However, more rapid warming or tropical and inland regions that presently feature hotter baselines may challenge these tested limits, requiring further research.

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“…We found a temperature dependence function for the transition between nonquiescent egg and larva from Rossi, Ólivêr, et al (2004) that does not consider the water influence, as we see in ( We selected this model since Rossi, Ólivêr, et al (2004) also considers the standard unit of measure as Celsius degree, although 𝜃 was truly a number in a similar range to the daily mean temperature but it was composed of the daily average temperature together with geographical coordinates. In our model, we are not interested in all those environmental aspects.…”

Section: 𝑅 𝐴 𝐷 (𝜃)mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We considered the same mortality rate for quiescent and nonquiescent eggs who died on day 𝑡 according to the temperature (see Figure 3.2(b)). According to Rossi, Ólivêr, et al (2004), 𝑅 0 𝐸 𝑞 (𝜃) = 𝑅 0 𝐸 (𝜃) = 0.0731 (exp ( 0.0595 𝜃 )) .…”

Section: 𝑅 𝐴 𝐷 (𝜃)mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Although researchers such as Rossi, Ólivêr, et al (2004) used the daily minimum, maximum, and mean temperatures to compose the inputs of dynamical systems, we assumed that applying daily mean temperature can provide enough information about the temperature influence over the Aedes aegypti life cycle (Lega et al, 2017;Loncaric and Hackenberger, 2011;Rossi, Lopez, et al, 2015;Yusoff et al, 2012b;Yusoff et al, 2012a).…”

Section: Storage Days Eclosionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A matrix population forecasting model for Aedes aegypti considering basic sanitation environment, daily weather, and its impact over the dormancy state

Bassani

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Modelling the Implications of Temperature on the Life Cycle of Aedes aegypti Mosquitoes

Cited by 7 publications

References 43 publications

Risk factors spatial-temporal detection for dengue fever in Guangzhou

Risk factors spatial-temporal detection for dengue fever in Guangzhou

wMelreplacement of dengue-competent mosquitoes is robust to near-term climate change

A matrix population forecasting model for Aedes aegypti considering basic sanitation environment, daily weather, and its impact over the dormancy state

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