Modelling the present and future distribution of Ambystoma altamirani in the Transmexican Volcanic Belt, Mexico

Abstract

Ambystoma altamirani is a critically endangered, microendemic amphibian species inhabiting the high-altitude rivers and streams of the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt (TMVB), a region experiencing severe ecological disturbances. This study aims to assess the current and future distribution of A. altamirani under different climate and land-use change scenarios using ecological niche modelling (ENM). We also evaluate the connectivity of suitable habitats and the overlap with existing natural protected areas (NPAs). Using occurrence records and environmental variables, we modelled the species’ potential distribution under two climate models (CN85 and MP85) for 2050. The results indicate a significant reduction in suitable habitat, particularly in areas such as the Sierra de las Cruces and the Chichinautzin Biological Corridor, with habitat losses projected to reach up to 13.95% by 2050 under the CN85 scenario. Forest cover loss between 2001 and 2023 further exacerbates this threat, especially in municipalities like Tlalpan and Ocuilan. Our analysis highlights the urgent need for targeted conservation efforts, including the preservation of mixed Abies-Pinus forests and the restoration of degraded ecosystems. The findings underscore the critical importance of integrated conservation strategies that address habitat degradation, climate resilience and ecological connectivity to ensure the long-term survival of A. altamirani.