Modelling the spatial dynamics of urban growth and land use changes in the north coast of São Paulo, Brazil

Inouye, Carlos Eduardo Nakao; Sousa, Wilson Cabral de; Freitas, Débora M. de; Simões, Eliane

doi:10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2014.12.016

Cited by 33 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 18 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…For example, the proximity of Serra do Mar makes these municipalities especially susceptible to orographic precipitation, and consequently intense runoff processes, river discharges, mass movements and landslides (Koga-Vicente and Nunes 2011; Sakai et al 2013). Urban sprawl has extended into such susceptible areas making the North Coast's municipalities particularly vulnerable to environmental and climatic events (Inouye et al 2015). Further, São Sebastião and Caraguatatuba feature expansion of the oil and gas industry and associated infrastructure, which pose risks and impacts involving oil spills and displacement of human populations (Teixeira 2013).…”

Section: Diagnosing Barriers To Adaptationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Additionally, the State Program for Prevention of Natural Disasters and Geological Hazard Mitigation (PDN) was established in 2011. Despite the initial progress in developing climate change response strategies, the translation of such strategies into action has been limited, particularly those to protect coastal populations and infrastructure in vulnerable areas (Barbi and Ferreira 2013;Iwama et al 2014;Inouye et al 2015).…”

Section: Policy Context For Adaptationmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Barriers and opportunities for adapting to climate change on the North Coast of São Paulo, Brazil

et al. 2017

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

This paper examines barriers and opportunities for climate change adaptation in an urban coastal setting where adaptation is in its infancy. It draws on a diagnostic framework as a foundation for identifying and organising barriers and opportunities in terms of three broad phases of the adaptation process, i.e. (1) understanding the problem, (2) planning adaptation options and (3) managing implementation of such options. Data come from the analysis of documents (e.g. policy, plans and reports) and a survey of 49 representatives from 42 organisations (e.g. government, environmental non-governmental organisations, businesses and local industry and professional associations). Nineteen barriers and/or opportunities pertaining to the different phases of the adaptation process were identified. Three of those barriers (i.e. competing priorities, existing management context and existing ecological context) are our additions to the initial list of common barriers proposed in the diagnostic framework. Barriers pertaining to the understanding phase were the most frequently noted by respondents. The understanding phase was also one which most of the barriers were nevertheless considered as opportunities. Emerging critical barriers and/or opportunities for climate change adaptation included perception of signal, availability and accessibility of information, existing management context and leadership. We propose that addressing these barriers and opportunities would involve improving perception about climate change and availability and accessibility of information, fostering anticipatory planned adaptation through the existing management context and developing leadership for adaptation. Findings from this study may prove useful to other jurisdictions, particularly those where climate adaptation is at its early stages of development.

show abstract

Section: Diagnosing Barriers To Adaptationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Policy Context For Adaptationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Barriers and opportunities for adapting to climate change on the North Coast of São Paulo, Brazil

et al. 2017

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Studies by [10,24] are examples of vulnerability analyses applied to the Brazilian coast. They use a socio-environmental vulnerability approach to point out that the urban expansion on the Brazilian coast occurs often in vulnerable areas, which usually exposes the population to major risks.…”

Section: Vulnerability Indexes and Variablesmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Climate Change Vulnerability Index and Case Study in a Brazilian Coastal City

2016

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Coastal areas are highly susceptible to the effects of climate change, particularly to sea-level rise and extreme rainfall events, resulting in increased social and environmental vulnerabilities. In this context, the need for predictive planning instruments, especially in densely populated coastal areas, is a critical management priority. A number of indexes has been developed to assess coastal vulnerability. However, coastal vulnerability indexes are yet to simultaneously consider inland (e.g., landslides and flooding) and ocean (sea-level rise and coastal erosion) hazards in conjunction. To help fill this gap, we developed the Socio-Environmental Vulnerability Index for Coastal Areas. The proposed index is a diagnostic tool to assess the socio-environmental vulnerability of coastal regions in the context of climate change. Applied to the city of Santos, a coastal municipality in São Paulo state, Brazil, the index revealed that most of the city are in areas highly vulnerable to sea-level rise and floods related to extreme rainfall events. Findings show that, in fact, approximately 70% of the area of Santos (27.5 km 2 ) consists of high vulnerability areas mostly located close to urban drainage channels, residential, and other built-in areas. Another 0.12% (0.05 km 2 ) were classified as very high vulnerability areas compromising port and industrial infrastructure. These results highlights the susceptibility of the urban insular area of Santos to climatic change hazards. This study might prove relevant to support local decision-makers in preparing adaptation plans and responding to climate-related risks in vulnerable coastal cities.

show abstract

“…Similarly, Sekovski et al (2015) assessed the impacts of coastal flooding upon urban growth using SLEUTH. Inouye et al (2015) applied a comparative approach to validate the importance of zoning in land use simulations. By applying a CA package (Dynamic EGO), they stated that the developments in ecologicaleconomic zones heightened the vulnerability to land sliding, SLR, and other coastal hazards.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An examination of land use impacts of flooding induced by sea level rise

Song¹,

Fu²,

Gu³

et al. 2017

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. Coastal regions become unprecedentedly vulnerable to coastal hazards that are associated with sea level rise. The purpose of this paper is therefore to simulate prospective urban exposure to changing sea levels. This article first applied the cellular-automaton-based SLEUTH model (Project Gigalopolis, 2016) to calibrate historical urban dynamics in Bay County, Florida (USA) -a region that is greatly threatened by rising sea levels. This paper estimated five urban growth parameters by multiple-calibration procedures that used different Monte Carlo iterations to account for modeling uncertainties. It then employed the calibrated model to predict three scenarios of urban growth up to 2080 -historical trend, urban sprawl, and compact development. We also assessed land use impacts of four policies: no regulations; flood mitigation plans based on the whole study region and on those areas that are prone to experience growth; and the protection of conservational lands. This study lastly overlaid projected urban areas in 2030 and 2080 with 500-year flooding maps that were developed under 0, 0.2, and 0.9 m sea level rise. The calibration results that a substantial number of built-up regions extend from established coastal settlements. The predictions suggest that total flooded area of new urbanized regions in 2080 would be more than 25 times that under the flood mitigation policy, if the urbanization progresses with few policy interventions. The joint model generates new knowledge in the domain between land use modeling and sea level rise. It contributes to coastal spatial planning by helping develop hazard mitigation schemes and can be employed in other international communities that face combined pressure of urban growth and climate change.

show abstract

Modelling the spatial dynamics of urban growth and land use changes in the north coast of São Paulo, Brazil

Cited by 33 publications

References 18 publications

Barriers and opportunities for adapting to climate change on the North Coast of São Paulo, Brazil

Barriers and opportunities for adapting to climate change on the North Coast of São Paulo, Brazil

A Climate Change Vulnerability Index and Case Study in a Brazilian Coastal City

An examination of land use impacts of flooding induced by sea level rise

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About