Modelo Espaço-Temporal De Inventário De Emissões Veiculares: Estudo De Caso Em Curitiba-Pr

Abstract

Vehicle emissions inventories are important tools to understand air quality impacts on the urban environment. This work proposes a platform for vehicle emissions estimation, based on the 4 stages transportation model and Origin/Destination (O/D) survey data, to evaluate scenarios of public policies on urban mobility. As a case study, emissions from passenger cars were estimated in Curitiba-PR, using data from O/D survey conducted in the Municipality's Metropolitan Region. To compare the emissions from this study's transportation model, the study estimated the emissions from Curitiba's City Hall model (generated from VISUM model). The estimation adopts a bottom-up approach, aggregating data at the vehicle level (age distribution of fleet, category of vehicles, types of fuel), trips patterns from Google Directions API (Application Programming Interface) (average speeds, preferential routes) and emission processes (hot exhaust emissions). The pollutants estimated were carbon monoxide (CO), carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrogen oxides (NOx) and non-methane hydrocarbons (NMHC). This work included applications of the proposed model for different scenarios of urban mobility: changes on emission factors, which considers the effect of higher degradation on old fleet emissions; limitation on the maximum age of fleet; as well as an increment of vehicle flow, powered by fossil fuels and electric. Results showed that the macroscopic patterns of traffic flow were similar between this study's and Curitiba's City Hall transport model, despite differences in the number of vehicles circulating on main roads. The scenario analysis suggested that a policy restricting the maximum vehicle age up to 20 or 30 years could reduce emission levels by 8-40% for the studied pollutants. A change on emission factors resulted in a variation of 24%, 44.5%, 32% for CO, NMHC and NOx emissions, respectively; showing the effects of vehicle and engine's degradation on global emissions. The scenarios of fleet increase indicated an increase in emissions, either from the insertion of internal combustion or electric vehicles - in the latter case, there was an increase in emissions due to the impact of the decrease in the average speed of internal combustion vehicles. The possibility of using Origin/Destination data to estimate vehicle emissions was shown, as well as the importance of evaluating emissions on spatial and temporal resolution.