2024
DOI: 10.1007/s42113-024-00223-7
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Models of Variability in Probabilistic Causal Judgments

Ivar Kolvoort,
Zachary J. Davis,
Bob Rehder
et al.

Abstract: Most theories of causal reasoning aim to explain the central tendency of causal judgments. However, experimental studies show that causal judgments are quite variable. In this article, we report the results of an experiment using a novel repeated measures design that demonstrate the existence of meaningful (i.e., not noise-related) within-participant variability. Next, we introduce and assess multiple computational cognitive models that serve as potential accounts of the sources of variability and fit those mo… Show more

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