Monitoring and Predicting Spatio-Temporal Land Use/Land Cover Changes in Zaria City, Nigeria, through an Integrated Cellular Automata and Markov Chain Model (CA-Markov)

Koko, Auwalu Faisal; Wu, Yingqin; Abubakar, Ghali Abdullahi; Hamed, Roknisadeh; Alabsi, Akram Ahmed Noman

doi:10.3390/su122410452

Cited by 55 publications

(27 citation statements)

References 79 publications

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“…From the change detection results obtained, it is evident that urbanization coupled with socio-economic activities in Abuja metropolis may have contributed remarkably to the transition of natural surfaces into built areas. The results conform with previous studies, which suggest an increasing trend in the spatial extent of built-up/urban areas in developing countries such as Nigeria, Bangladesh, Egypt, and many others [6,19,37,39,68]. These are consequences of rapid urban growth and the quest for better living conditions.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 90%

“…Although several studies exist on LULC scenarios of selected cities in developing countries such as Nigeria [34][35][36][37][38][39], comprehensive studies on the spatiotemporal analysis of LULC changes and their influence on the surface UHI of Nigeria's rapidly growing cities are still relatively limited to non-existent. Abuja, Nigeria's capital and one of Nigeria's largest cities, has been under tremendous pressure over the last few decades due to rapid urbanization and population growth.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Spatiotemporal Influence of Land Use/Land Cover Change Dynamics on Surface Urban Heat Island: A Case Study of Abuja Metropolis, Nigeria

Koko

Abubakar

et al. 2021

IJGI

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Rapid urbanization in cities and urban centers has recently contributed to notable land use/land cover (LULC) changes, affecting both the climate and environment. Therefore, this study seeks to analyze changes in LULC and its spatiotemporal influence on the surface urban heat islands (UHI) in Abuja metropolis, Nigeria. To achieve this, we employed Multi-temporal Landsat data to monitor the study area’s LULC pattern and land surface temperature (LST) over the last 29 years. The study then analyzed the relationship between LULC, LST, and other vital spectral indices comprising NDVI and NDBI using correlation analysis. The results revealed a significant urban expansion with the transformation of 358.3 sq. km of natural surface into built-up areas. It further showed a considerable increase in the mean LST of Abuja metropolis from 30.65 °C in 1990 to 32.69 °C in 2019, with a notable increase of 2.53 °C between 2009 and 2019. The results also indicated an inverse relationship between LST and NDVI and a positive connection between LST and NDBI. This implies that urban expansion and vegetation decrease influences the development of surface UHI through increased LST. Therefore, the study’s findings will significantly help urban-planners and decision-makers implement sustainable land-use strategies and management for the city.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 90%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatiotemporal Influence of Land Use/Land Cover Change Dynamics on Surface Urban Heat Island: A Case Study of Abuja Metropolis, Nigeria

Koko

Abubakar

et al. 2021

IJGI

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“…km, respectively, to this expansion of built-up areas between 1991 and 2020. This development is attributed to the city's rapid urbanization, and aligns with previous studies which highlight the environmental challenge of urban modification, i.e., increased land surface temperature due to LULC alterations [40,61,66,71].…”

Section: Spatial Distribution Of Lulc Classes Decadal Changes and Transitionssupporting

confidence: 88%

“…The study further witnessed an alteration of NDVI in 2020 with minimum and maximum values of −0.14 and +0.30, respectively. Previous studies indicate that areas with higher NDVI values signify forest and vegetated lands having agricultural farms, while lower NDVI values represent built-up areas and other land uses such as barren land and water bodies [61,73]. The NDVI maps showed a substantial decrease in vegetation cover, with lower NDVI values from 1991 to 2020.…”

Section: Normalised Difference Vegetation Indexmentioning

confidence: 85%

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Thirty Years of Land Use/Land Cover Changes and Their Impact on Urban Climate: A Study of Kano Metropolis, Nigeria

Koko

Abubakar

et al. 2021

Land

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Rapid urban expansion and the alteration of global land use/land cover (LULC) patterns have contributed substantially to the modification of urban climate, due to variations in Land Surface Temperature (LST). In this study, the LULC change dynamics of Kano metropolis, Nigeria, were analysed over the last three decades, i.e., 1990–2020, using multispectral satellite data to understand the impact of urbanization on LST in the study area. The Maximum Likelihood classification method and the Mono-window algorithm were utilised in classifying land uses and retrieving LST data. Spectral indices comprising the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Normalized Difference Built-up Index (NDBI) were also computed. A linear regression analysis was employed in order to examine the correlation between land surface temperature and the various spectral indices. The results indicate significant LULC changes and urban expansion of 152.55 sq. km from 1991 to 2020. During the study period, the city’s barren land and water bodies declined by approximately 172.58 sq. km and 26.55 sq. km, respectively, while vegetation increased slightly by 46.58 sq. km. Further analysis showed a negative correlation between NDVI and LST with a Pearson determination coefficient (R2) of 0.6145, 0.5644, 0.5402, and 0.5184 in 1991, 2000, 2010, and 2020 respectively. NDBI correlated positively with LST, having an R2 of 0.4132 in 1991, 0.3965 in 2000, 0.3907 in 2010, and 0.3300 in 2020. The findings of this study provide critical climatic data useful to policy- and decision-makers in optimizing land use and mitigating the impact of urban heat through sustainable urban development.

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Future land use land cover changes in El-Fayoum governorate: a simulation study using satellite data and CA-Markov model

Atef,

Ahmed,

Abdel-Maguid

2023

Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess

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This study aims to monitor the changes in land use land cover (LULC) in El-Fayoum governorate over time (past, present, and future) to provide current information for stakeholders involved in land use planning. The study utilized Landsat satellite images and applied the Support Vector Machine algorithm using ArcGIS Pro 2.8.3 to classify the images into four major LULC classes: water, desert, built-up, and agricultural. To evaluate the accuracy of the LULC maps, the study used kappa statistical parameters, which ranged from 0.91 to 0.94, indicating acceptable results for further analysis. To predict spatio-temporal LULC changes, the study considered biophysical and socioeconomic factors such as distance to canals, distance to roads, distance to urban areas, a digital elevation model, and slope. A combination of Multi-Criteria Evaluation, a Fuzzy Membership Function, and the Analytic Hierarchy Process were employed to develop a land cover suitability map. The Hybrid CA-Markov model of the IDRISI-TerrSet software was used to simulate LULC changes, and the accuracy of the simulation was validated using 2020 imagery data. The values gained from the kappa indices for agreement (standard) = 0.9006, kappa for lack of information (no) = 0.916, and kappa for location at grid cell level (location) = 0.9572 demonstrate that the results of the simulation of the LULC changes were deemed satisfactory. The future scenarios modeled in LULC indicate a significant change in the LULC classes over time, specifically for 2030. The change rates of agriculture, desert, built-up, and water areas in El-Fayoum in 2030 compared to 2020 are estimated to be 9.68%, − 17.58%, 133.62%, and 6.06%, respectively. These findings establish both past and future LULC trends and provide crucial data useful for planning and sustainable land use management.

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Monitoring and Predicting Spatio-Temporal Land Use/Land Cover Changes in Zaria City, Nigeria, through an Integrated Cellular Automata and Markov Chain Model (CA-Markov)

Cited by 55 publications

References 79 publications

Spatiotemporal Influence of Land Use/Land Cover Change Dynamics on Surface Urban Heat Island: A Case Study of Abuja Metropolis, Nigeria

Spatiotemporal Influence of Land Use/Land Cover Change Dynamics on Surface Urban Heat Island: A Case Study of Abuja Metropolis, Nigeria

Thirty Years of Land Use/Land Cover Changes and Their Impact on Urban Climate: A Study of Kano Metropolis, Nigeria

Future land use land cover changes in El-Fayoum governorate: a simulation study using satellite data and CA-Markov model

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