Monitoring the Past and Future Trends of Urban Thermal Comfort Conditions Through a New Methodology

Abstract

Human thermal comfort representing the satisfaction of mind with ambient air conditions has signi cant effects on socioeconomic activities. Climate change is affecting thermal comfort conditions (TCCs) negatively. Therefore, it is important to estimate their past and future trends to take accurate measures for mitigation and adaptation efforts in especially urban areas. However, it is di cult to calculate TCCs for future since they are the combined effect of several meteorological parameters on a person outdoor together with her/his own physiological characteristics, which must be evaluated individually. This study aims to determine the TCCs trends in the past compared to the present while estimating the future conditions using a new methodology in the case of Kayseri city in the Interior Anatolia Region of Turkey. As the result of the study, all the change trends considering temporal and spatial results show that thermal comfort conditions signal warmer and higher heat stress in past and future trends. This means human thermal sensation ranges (e.g. very cold) have replaced with the next warmer range and their spatial distribution in percentage has also changed towards warmer. Future predictions have also implied the same change trend and the level of heat stress which has never been experienced in the study area e.g. strong heat stress. Increase in the prevalence of unfavourable thermal comfort conditions causes the decrease in the liveability indicators in especially urban areas, including serious economic loses based on energy consumption, health care expenses and e ciency of activities. It is required that both past and expected future trends be considered in the planning and design works to make cities resilient and have higher adaptive capacity to climate change.

Spatial Distribution and Future Projections of Thermal Comfort Conditions during the Hot Period of the Year in Diyarbakır City, Southeastern Turkey

“…This method was tested for three different cities located in different climatic zones and is reported to have an accuracy of over 95%. It has also been used in many studies [19,47,61].…”

“…This method was tested for three different cities located in different climatic zones and is reported to have an accuracy of over 95%. It has also been used in many studies [19,47,61]. In addition, the ArcGIS 10.5 program was used to calculate how much of the area was covered by thermal gaps.…”

Climate projections of human thermal comfort for indoor workplaces

“…To date, human biometeorological studies calculating thermal comfort indices for future climate projections generally consider outdoor conditions only (Matzarakis and Amelung 2008 ; Matzarakis and Endler 2010 ; Cheung and Hart 2014 ; Wallenberg et al 2023 ; Bal and Kirchner 2023 ; Çağlak et al 2023 ). Climate projections enable the modeling of PET changes in the future for certain locations (Matzarakis and Endler 2010 ) or worldwide (Matzarakis and Amelung 2008 ).…”