Monkeypox outbreaks in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic: Network and clustering analyses of global risks and modified SEIR prediction of epidemic trends

Abstract

BackgroundNinety-eight percent of documented cases of the zoonotic disease human monkeypox (MPX) were reported after 2001, with especially dramatic global spread in 2022. This longitudinal study aimed to assess spatiotemporal risk factors of MPX infection and predict global epidemiological trends.MethodTwenty-one potential risk factors were evaluated by correlation-based network analysis and multivariate regression. Country-level risk was assessed using a modified Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) model and a risk-factor-driven k-means clustering analysis.ResultsBetween historical cases and the 2022 outbreak, MPX infection risk factors changed from relatively simple [human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection and population density] to multiple [human mobility, population of men who have sex with men, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection, and socioeconomic factors], with human mobility in the context of COVID-19 being especially key. The 141 included countries classified into three risk clusters: 24 high-risk countries mainly in West Europe and Northern America, 70 medium-risk countries mainly in Latin America and Asia, and 47 low-risk countries mainly in Africa and South Asia. The modified SEIR model predicted declining transmission rates, with basic reproduction numbers ranging 1.61–7.84 in the early stage and 0.70–4.13 in the current stage. The estimated cumulative cases in Northern and Latin America may overtake the number in Europe in autumn 2022.ConclusionsIn the current outbreak, risk factors for MPX infection have changed and expanded. Forecasts of epidemiological trends from our modified SEIR models suggest that Northern America and Latin America are at greater risk of MPX infection in the future.

Spatiotemporal multiscale diagnosis model to proactively respond to the multi‐country monkeypox virus outbreak in 2022

“…However, one of the limitations of the presented research is that we cannot compare our results with those from other studies on MPXV using the same diagnosis method in the 2022 multi‐country outbreak. Nevertheless, similarities were found in the results at the global level with other research based on other methodologies, such as risk models (Gao et al., 2023).…”

“…New ways of transmission are being researched, such as sexual contact (Heskin et al., 2022). The first study to assess the global risks of MPXV spread in the 2022 multi‐country outbreak shows that risk factors have changed from relatively simple in endemic countries to multiple in non‐endemic outbreaks, where mobility, population of men who have sex with men or socioeconomic factors drive the virus spread worldwide (Gao et al., 2023).…”

“…LQ results are relevant and novel. Countries with higher LQ values (>1000%) coincide with high-risk countries in Western Europe and North America identified by Gao et al (2023). Clearly, location quotients show that there is no proportionality between the volume of population and cumulative MPXV cases by country at a global scale, while other health geography and epidemiologic research found a concentration of cases at the local scale in most populated and metropolitan areas (Polidoro et al, 2023).…”

Analysing monkeypox epidemic drivers: Policy simulation and multi-index modelling across 39 nations

“…A principal strategy for managing the number of air transport passengers is to impose travel restrictions during high-risk periods and suspend incoming flights from high-risk countries. This strategy was applied to the prevention and control of most person-to-person transmitted infectious diseases and was utilised during the COVID-19 pandemic by many countries over a prolonged period, considerably reducing the number of imported cases [ 30 ]. However, given the lower pathogenicity and transmissibility of Mpox than those of COVID-19 and the fact that excessive population control measures caused great economic damage during the COVID-19 pandemic, these measures were not applied during the Mpox pandemic.…”

Monkeypox Virus: A Comprehensive Overview of Viral Pathology, Immune Response, and Antiviral Strategies

“…Moreover, some recommendations have been put forth for the use of the approved vaccines ACAM2000 and JYNNEOSTM in the form of pre-exposure among high-risk groups and booster doses for mpox patients [ 51 ]. Similarly, some protocols have been outlined, which state that researchers and lab technicians working in a laboratory need to have proper laboratory instruments, sample handling, and occupational regulations [ 60 ].…”