Mortality and Air Pollution J London: A Time Series Analysis

Abstract

The relation between air pollution and mortality in London was examined for the winters of 1958-1972. The data exhibited a high degree of autocorrelation, requiring analyses using autoregressive models. There was a highly significant relation between mortality and either particulate matter or sulfur dioxide (after controlling for temperature and humidity), both overall and in each individual year. Graphic analysis revealed a nonlinear relation with no threshold, and a steeper exposure-response curve at lower air pollution levels. In models with both pollutants, particulate matter remained a significant predictor with about a 10% reduction in its estimated coefficients, while sulfur dioxide was insignificant, with a large drop in its estimated coefficient. The authors conclude that particulates are strongly associated with mortality rates in London, and the relation is likely causal.

Estimating Fuel Cycle Externalities: Analytical Methods and Issues, Report 2

“…Schwartz and Marcus (1990) show that the slope, indicating the relationship between air pollution and mortality, was fairly consistent across all of the 14 years of data. The London data are highly seasonal, notably peaking in winter.…”

“…Different types of particulates have different chemical and physical properties --implying that they have different impacts on human health, and thus different externality values. However, the evidence from the current literature is mixed on this issue: rn On the one hand, Schwartz and Marcus (1990) report an effect from particulate matter and a lesser effect from a higher covarying concentration of sulfur dioxide. Also, find that PM,,, but not sulfates and acid aerosols (two of the smaller types of particles), are associated with premature mortality.…”

“…For this review, quantitative estimates of the London data are taken from Schwartz and Marcus (1990) that involves the most complete examination of the effects of temperature and humidity, autocorrelation, and functional form. Their results over the 14 years suggest the following:…”

“…Air Pollution and Mortality (d) While Schwartz and Marcus (1990) generally found a significant relationship between daily particulate pollution and mortality, the statistical significance of their results declined as pollution levels decreased over the 1958 to 1971 time period. In fact, in one of the more recent years, the statistical relationship was not significant.…”

Geoprocessamento, ambiente e saúde: uma união possível?

“…As associações entre qualidade do ar e mortalidade por doenças pulmonares (Anto, 1989;Schwartz & Marcus, 1990) são exemplos de estudos valiosos no campo da saúde ambiental que procuram avaliar o impacto de condições ambientais adversas sobre a saúde em curtos períodos de tempo. Se estas relações são observadas no tempo, não são da mesma maneira evidentes na dimensão espacial.…”