Mountainous Freeway Risk Degree Forecast Model of Case Study: Changjin Freeway in Jiangxi Province

Abstract

The objective of this study is to establish the mountainous freeway risk degree forecast model. Highway safety, especially mountainous freeway, relates to person, vehicle, road and environment four aspects including many factors. Firstly, this study analyzed some researches about the highway safety from these four aspects respectively. Secondly, this study considered many factors of these four aspects, established the mountainous freeway risk degree forecast model, listed the survey content needed in the forecast model. Finally, this study took Changjin Freeway in Jiangxi Province, China as example, used 91 accident data from January, 2006 to July, 2012, adopted the multiple linear regression method using spss 17.0 to obtain each parameter value of the forecast model and analyzed some parameter values to the mountainous freeway safety. The mountainous freeway risk degree forecast model is necessary and useful to evaluate the risk degree for constructed mountainous freeway, to estimate the safety of unconstructed mountainous freeway and to provide basis to improve mountainous freeway safety.