MS-ReRO and D-ROSE methods: Assessing relational uncertainty and evaluating scenarios’ risks and opportunities on multi-scale infrastructure systems

Abstract

There is a growing interest in model-based decision support systems contributing to strategic planning. The application of these in the case of urban infrastructure planning requires methods specifically aimed at addressing the relational uncertainties arising from the complex, multi-scale nature of this field. This study presents UPSS, a comprehensive urban planning support system integrating the generation of planning alternatives, the evaluation of alternatives under a set of relevant scenarios selected dynamically in a cognitive way, and the proposal of policies to accompany the planning alternative. For this purpose, UPSS integrates two novel methods which deal respectively with the ex post identification of relevant scenarios for the evaluation of the vulnerability and resilience of the alternatives, and with the assessment of relational uncertainty. According to the risks and opportunities borne by the system, the process makes it possible to select an infrastructure plan to alleviate the problem of urban vulnerability, as well as a set of relational contracts for its proper implementation across the different governmental scales of the infrastructure system. The whole process is tested via a case study, in which USPP first proposes optimal urban infrastructure plans that contribute to ameliorate the problem of urban vulnerability in Spain, then evaluates the risks and opportunities attached to the planning alternatives, and finally presents sets of policy measures to accompany the implementation of the alternative selected.

VisualUVAM: A Decision Support System Addressing the Curse of Dimensionality for the Multi-Scale Assessment of Urban Vulnerability in Spain

“…The multi-scale assessment of urban vulnerability provided by VisualUVAM affords to evaluate how a set of mitigation alternatives, implemented at city scale, can contribute reducing vulnerability at different scales, and thus becomes a valuable information for addressing the problem of urban vulnerability by means of a comprehensive, and coordinated, urban strategic planning [8] addressing the gaps previously identified [7,8].…”

“…While other methodologies have undertaken the evaluation of resilience at buildings, parcels, neighbourhoods and communities scales [4], this study investigates the effect of entities' political-administrative context's risk over entities' risk at the municipal, provincial and regional scales of urban vulnerability. This multi-scale assessment meets the requirements for being integrated into strategic planning to produce a comprehensive plan of actions, to be implemented at local (down) scale, contributing to ameliorate vulnerability at national (top) scales [8].…”

“…In the pursuit of this, several requirements have been pointed out, all of which should be simultaneously addressed by vulnerability assessment methods in order to integrate vulnerability assessment into current urban strategic planning (USP) [2,5] and fill the gap between assessment and actions [6]. Specifically, the advancement in multi-scale assessment methods is needed to afford a multi-scale assessment framework providing an integrated evaluation of entities at the three relevant levels of government (Central government, regions, and cities), with which to avoid resources allocation problems [7,8].…”

“…This paper presents a Decision Support System (DSS) implementing a methodology previously developed [11] to provide an urban vulnerability assessment of Spain at regional, provincial, and city scales that can be integrated into strategic planning tools for ameliorating this problem [8]. The DSS is a Multi Objective Optimization (MOO) decision-making tool [12] for simultaneously addressing all the requirements pointed out for vulnerability assessment, as well as for searching the set of indicators best representing urban vulnerability accordingly to several objectives.…”

Enhancing Sustainability and Resilience through Multi-Level Infrastructure Planning

“…This means that resilient infrastructure planning requires not only the design of measures for the improvement of infrastructure resiliency, but also measures ensuring the best implementation of these actions [3]. However, there are currently few methods incorporating the design of an implementation strategy as a part of the planning process across multi-level governmental environments [4,5].…”