Multi-ancestry polygenic risk scores using phylogenetic regularization

Abstract

Accurately predicting phenotype using genotype across diverse ancestry groups remains a significant challenge in human genetics. Many state-of-the-art polygenic risk score models are known to have difficulty generalizing to genetic ancestries that are not well represented in their training set. To address this issue, we present a novel machine learning method for fitting genetic effect sizes across multiple ancestry groups simultaneously, while leveraging prior knowledge of the evolutionary relationships among them. We introduce DendroPRS, a machine learning model where SNP effect sizes are allowed to evolve along the branches of the phylogenetic tree capturing the relationship among populations. DendroPRS outperforms existing approaches at two important genotype-to-phenotype prediction tasks: expression QTL analysis and polygenic risk scores. We also demonstrate that our method can be useful for multi-ancestry modelling, both by fitting population-specific effect sizes and by more accurately accounting for covariate effects across groups. We additionally find a subset of genes where there is strong evidence that an ancestry-specific approach improves eQTL modelling.