Multi-criteria evaluation of CMIP5 GCMs for climate change impact analysis

Ahmadalipour, Ali; Rana, Arun; Moradkhani, Hamid; Sharma, Ashish

doi:10.1007/s00704-015-1695-4

Cited by 117 publications

(73 citation statements)

References 51 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…The regional models, however, have no mechanism for correcting uncertainties and possible errors introduced by global models' simulations. In spite of current uncertainties, especially with respect to simulated and predicted precipitation, the models' projections are being used for the estimation of different climate variables on global as well as regional scales [25,26].…”

Section: Cmip5 Climate Models Simulationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The resulting hydrological climate sensitivity 1.41%/ • C for the eastern part of the US is far from the observed values of 6.7%/ • C, while the 0.03%/ • C for the western US is consistent with observation indicating no significant change in precipitation with increasing temperature. In spite of current uncertainties, especially with respect to simulated and predicted precipitation, the models' projections are being used for the estimation of different climate variables on global as well as regional scales [25,26].…”

Section: Cmip5 Climate Models Simulationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Observed and Projected Precipitation Changes over the Nine US Climate Regions

et al. 2017

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract:We analyze the past temperature and precipitation changes in nine separate US climate regions. We find that the temperature increased in a statistically significant (95% confidence level equivalent to alpha level of 0.05) manner in all of these regions. However, the variability in the observed precipitation was much more complex. In the eastern US (east of Rocky Mountains), the precipitation increased in all five climate regions and the increase was statistically significant in three of them. In contract, in the western US, the precipitation increased in two regions and decreased in two with no statistical significance in any region. The CMIP5 climate models (an ensemble mean) were not able to capture properly either the large precipitation differences between the eastern and the western US, or the changes of precipitation between 1900 and 2015 in eastern US. The statistical regression model explains the differences between the eastern and western US precipitation as results of different significant predictors. The anthropogenic greenhouse gases and aerosol (GHGA) are the major forcing of the precipitation in the eastern part of US, while the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) has the major influence on precipitation in the western part of the US. Our analysis suggests that the precipitation over the eastern US increased at an approximate rate of 6.7%/K, in agreement with the Clausius-Clapeyron equation, while the precipitation of the western US was approximately constant, independent of the temperature. Future precipitation over the western part of the US will depend on the behavior of the PDO, and how it (PDO) may be affected by future warming. Low hydrological sensitivity (percent increase of precipitation per one K of warming) projected by the CMIP5 models for the eastern US suggests either an underestimate of future precipitation or an overestimate of future warming.

show abstract

Section: Cmip5 Climate Models Simulationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Cmip5 Climate Models Simulationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Observed and Projected Precipitation Changes over the Nine US Climate Regions

et al. 2017

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The uncertainties in GCM parameterization and the existence of large biases in raw GCM outputs given the model development assumptions have resulted in overestimation of precipitation (Risley et al , ; Sheffield et al , ; Nasrollahi et al , ). In a regional study over the Pacific Northwest United States, Ahmadalipour et al () showed that raw GCMs over‐estimate summer precipitation and under‐estimate winter temperature. Moreover, current GCMs have a fairly coarse resolution and therefore, are not able to reproduce small‐scale regional climate characteristics (Werner, ; Rana and Moradkhani, ; Rana et al , ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Centennial drought outlook over the CONUS using NASA‐NEX downscaled climate ensemble

Ahmadalipour

Moradkhani

Svoboda

2016

Intl Journal of Climatology

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Drought is a natural hazard developing slowly and affecting large areas which may have severe consequences on society and economy. Due to the effects of climate change, drought is expected to exacerbate in various regions in future. In this study, the impact of climate change on drought characteristics is assessed, and statistical methods are employed to analyse the significance of projections. This is the first study utilizing 21 recently available downscaled global climate models generated by NASA (NEX‐GDDP) to evaluate drought projections over various regions across the United States. Drought is investigated through a multi‐model dual‐index dual‐scenario approach to probabilistically analyse drought attributes while characterizing the uncertainty in future drought projections. Standardized Precipitation Index and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index values at the seasonal scale (3 months) are used to project and analyse meteorological drought conditions from 1950 to 2099 at 0.25° spatial resolution. Two future concentration pathways of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 are considered for this analysis. Accounting for the combined effects of precipitation and temperature variations reveals a considerable aggravation in severity and extent of future drought in the western United States and a tendency toward more frequent and intense summer droughts across the Contiguous United States.

show abstract

“…However, the outputs of these GCMs are coarse in spatial resolution [10,11] and might not be suitable at the basin level, especially for small basins, which require very fine spatial resolution [12,13]. To use the outputs of GCMs at the basin level, downscaling-dynamical and statistical-techniques have been developed [14].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of Impacts of Climate Change on the Water Resources of the Transboundary Jhelum River Basin of Pakistan and India

Mahmood

Jia

2016

Water

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Pakistan's economy is significantly reliant on agriculture. However, Pakistan is included in the most water-stressed countries in the world, and its water resources are considerably vulnerable to climate variability and climate change. Therefore, in the present study, the water resources of the Jhelum River basin, which provides water to 6 million hectares of land of Pakistan and hydropower production, were assessed under the scenarios A2 and B2 of HadCM3. A hydrological model, Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS), was set up, calibrated, and validated for the Jhelum basin, and then streamflow was simulated for three future periods: 2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2099. The simulated streamflow of each period was compared with the simulated streamflow of the baseline period to find the changes in the following indicators: mean flow, low flow, median flow, high flow, and center-of-volume dates (CVDs). The results of the study showed an increase of 10%-15% in the mean annual flow as compared to the baseline flow at the end of this century. Winter, spring, and autumn showed an increase in streamflow at most of the sites in all three periods. However, summer (the monsoon season in the basin) showed decreased streamflow at most of the sites. Maximum increase at Azad Pattan was projected in winter in the 2080s, with about 37%-39% increase in flow under both scenarios. Low and median flows were projected to increase, but a decline in high flow was detected in the future under both scenarios. It was also concluded that half of the annual flow in the basin will pass by the Azad Pattan site one week earlier than it does now. On the whole, the Jhelum basin would face more temporal and magnitudinal variations in high, low, and mean flows relative to present conditions. This shows that without a consideration of climate change impacts, proper utilization and management of water resources in the basin will be more difficult.

show abstract

Multi-criteria evaluation of CMIP5 GCMs for climate change impact analysis

Abstract: Part of the Civil Engineering Commons, Environmental Engineering Commons, and the Hydraulic Engineering Commons Let us know how access to this document benefits you.

Cited by 117 publications

References 51 publications

Observed and Projected Precipitation Changes over the Nine US Climate Regions

Observed and Projected Precipitation Changes over the Nine US Climate Regions

Centennial drought outlook over the CONUS using NASA‐NEX downscaled climate ensemble

Assessment of Impacts of Climate Change on the Water Resources of the Transboundary Jhelum River Basin of Pakistan and India

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About