Multi-criteria performance analysis based on Physics of Decision — Application to COVID-19 and future pandemics

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to present a novel perspective on decision support based on the conventional SEIR pandemic model paradigm considering the risks and opportunities as physical forces deviating the expected performance trajectory of a system. The impact of a pandemic is measured by the deviation of the social system's performance trajectory within the geometrical framework of its Key Performance Indicators (KPIs). According to the overall premise of utilizing Ordinary Differential Equations to simulate epidemics, the deviations are connected to several alternative interventions. The model is essentially built on two sets of parameters: (i) social system parameters and (ii) pandemic parameters. The ultimate objective is to propose a multi-criteria performance framework to control pandemics that includes a combination of timely measures. On the one hand, the current study optimizes prospective strategies to manage the potential future pandemic, while on the other hand, it explores the COVID-19 epidemic in the state of Georgia (USA).