Multi-hazard disaster risk identification for World Cultural Heritage sites in seismic zones

Abstract

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to develop an integrated multi-risk identification procedure for World Cultural Heritage (WCH) sites exposed to seismic events, while considering characteristics of disasters from earthquakes in a multi-hazard context on one side and particular aspects of WCH (e.g. outstanding universal values and associated condition of authenticity and integrity) on the other. Design/methodology/approach An interdisciplinary review of current relevant approaches, methods, and practices is conducted through the existing literature of disaster risk management, heritage conservation, and seismology. Furthermore, a document analysis of concrete cases affected by seismic events supports concepts and the procedure. Findings This paper results in a methodology of identifying multi-risk of disasters induced by earthquakes. A bow-tie analysis diagram in combination with a risk identification matrix is developed for illustrating a multiple emergency scenario in identifying possible impacts of earthquakes’ primary effects, secondary hazards, and human-threats on tangible and intangible attributes of cultural properties. Practical implications The research aims to provide specialists and practitioners from multiple sectors engaged in pre-disaster risk mitigation and preparedness plan for cultural heritage with a practical risk identification tool. The proposed method, in a multiple hazard context, intends to enhance risk assessment procedure for determining more appropriate risk reduction strategies in the decision-making process. Originality/value This paper, through emphasising “earthquake disaster risk” rather than “earthquake risk”, illuminates the significance of quake-followed secondary hazards, potential human-induced hazards and human errors in the risk identification process, due to the fact that while a disaster may begin with a quake, its full scope might be triggered by a combination of the mentioned potential threats.

Multi-risk assessment in mountain regions: A review of modelling approaches for climate change adaptation

“…A possible layout for EFTs application is the bow-tie method. This approach, largely used in industry risk assessments, integrates together EFTs for a comprehensive investigation of the upstream conditions triggering an event, and the consequences downstream (Cockshott, 2005;Ravankhah et al, 2017;Shahriar et al, 2012;Weber, 2006). Overall, applications in mountain regions showed the suitability of EFTs in assessing chains of natural hazards.…”

A Conceptual Framework for Heritage Impact Assessment: A Review and Perspective

“…This is rather more complicated, but it is helpful to identify the cumulative impacts in particular [57]. The research study "Multi-hazard disaster risk identification for World Cultural Heritage sites in seismic zones" [82] used the Bowtie risk assessment tool for the identification and evaluation of direct and indirect impacts on the WH properties which can be applicable to HIAs. Maps are easily understandable and reasonably practicable, especially in combination with analytic tools such as 3D modeling and GIS (Geographic Information Systems).…”

Understanding Multi-hazard Interaction and Impact on Small Islands Community: Insights from an Active Volcano Island of Ternate, Indonesia

“…Multi-hazards can be serial hazards (one hazard built on the impact of previous hazards on a society (see e.g., [21] or parallel hazards (more than one hazard occurs simultaneously) (e.g., [3] and each can also have compounding and cascading impacts. The terms such as multi-hazard, compounding and cascading hazards have many interlinked and overlapping definitions [10].…”