Multi-periodic climate dynamics: spectral analysis of long-term instrumental and proxy temperature records

Lüdecke, Horst-Joachim; Hempelmann, A.; Weiß, C. O.

doi:10.5194/cp-9-447-2013

Cited by 32 publications

(17 citation statements)

References 23 publications

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“…Astronomically-based semi-empirical harmonic models to reconstruct and forecast climatic changes are being proposed by several authors (e.g. : Abdusamatov, 2013;Akasofu, 2013;Lüdecke et al, 2013;Salvador, 2013;Scafetta, 2010Scafetta, , 2012aScafetta, ,b,d, 2013aSolheim, 2013a).…”

Section: Astronomically-based Semi-empirical Harmonic Climate Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The complex planetary synchronization structure of the solar system

Scafetta

2014

Pattern Recogn. Phys.

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The complex planetary synchronization structure of the solar system, which since Pythagoras of Samos (ca. 570-495 BC) is known as the music of the spheres, is briefly reviewed from the Renaissance up to contemporary research. Copernicus' heliocentric model from 1543 suggested that the planets of our solar system form a kind of mutually ordered and quasi-synchronized system. From 1596 to 1619 Kepler formulated preliminary mathematical relations of approximate commensurabilities among the planets, which were later reformulated in the Titius-Bode rule (1766-1772) that successfully predicted the orbital position of Ceres and Uranus. Following the discovery of the ∼11 yr sunspot cycle, in 1859 Wolf suggested that the observed solar variability could be approximately synchronized with the orbital movements of Venus, Earth, Jupiter and Saturn. Modern research have further confirmed that: (1) the planetary orbital periods can be approximately deduced from a simple system of resonant frequencies; (2) the solar system oscillates with a specific set of gravitational frequencies, and many of them (e.g. within the range between 3 yr and 100 yr) can be approximately constructed as harmonics of a base period of ∼178.38 yr; (3) solar and climate records are also characterized by planetary harmonics from the monthly to the millennia time scales. This short review concludes with an emphasis on the contribution of the author's research on the empirical evidences and physical modeling of both solar and climate variability based on astronomical harmonics. The general conclusion is that the solar system works as a resonator characterized by a specific harmonic planetary structure that synchronizes also the Sun's activity and the Earth's climate. The special issue "Pattern in solar variability, their planetary origin and terrestrial impacts" further develops the ideas about the planetary-solar-terrestrial interaction with the personal contribution of 10 authors.

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Section: Astronomically-based Semi-empirical Harmonic Climate Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The complex planetary synchronization structure of the solar system

Scafetta

2014

Pattern Recogn. Phys.

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“…Babich et al [15] have found periods of ~1000, ~500 to ~350, and ~200 years in paleoreconstruction of the last 2000 years, predicting a strongly pronounced cooling until AD 2500. In this context, we need to mention Schlesinger and Ramankutty [16], Gervais [17], De Vries [18], Suess [19], Steinhilber et al [20,21], Breitenmoser et al [22], Cliver et al [23], Raspopov et al [24], Novello et al [25], Wagner et al [26], Lüdecke et al [27,28], Friis-Christensen and Lassen [29], Van Geel et al [30], Braun et al [31], Lohmann and Schöne [32], Czymzik et al [33], Adolphi et al [34], Wirth et al [35], Lockwood [36], Fleitmann et al [37], Svensmark [38], Svensmark et al [6], Marsh and Svensmark [39], Enghoff [40], Gray et al [41], Haigh [42,43], Ineson et al [44], Seidenglanz et al [45], Kodera [46], Meehl et al [47], and Leal-Silva and Herrera [48]. Lüning [49] provides an extensive compilation of pertinent references.…”

Section: Introduction / Overviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Harmonic Analysis of Worldwide Temperature Proxies for 2000 Years

Lüdecke¹,

Weiß²

2017

TOASCJ

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Abstract:The Sun as climate driver is repeatedly discussed in the literature but proofs are often weak. In order to elucidate the solar influence, we have used a large number of temperature proxies worldwide to construct a global temperature mean G7 over the last 2000 years. The Fourier spectrum of G7 shows the strongest components as ~1000-, ~460-, and ~190 -year periods whereas other cycles of the individual proxies are considerably weaker. The G7 temperature extrema coincide with the Roman, medieval, and present optima as well as the well-known minimum of AD 1450 during the Little Ice Age. We have constructed by reverse Fourier transform a representation of G7 using only these three sine functions, which shows a remarkable Pearson correlation of 0.84 with the 31-year running average of G7. The three cycles are also found dominant in the production rates of the solar-induced cosmogenic nuclides 14 C and 10 Be, most strongly in the ~190 -year period being known as the De Vries/Suess cycle. By wavelet analysis, a new proof has been provided that at least the ~190-year climate cycle has a solar origin.

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“…The series is mean corrected for the signal analysis. This paleoproxy record is used to assess decadal to century time scale cycles [ Battisti , ; Li et al ., ; Lüdecke et al ., ] ( ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/treering/reconstructions/enso-li2013.txt). Logistic map [ Feigenbaum , ]. The logistic map is used to provide the

2 n^{2}

3 n^{2}

, and

3 n^{2} + I

period doubling subharmonic universal features.…”

Section: Analysis Methods and Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The series is mean corrected for the signal analysis. This paleoproxy record is used to assess decadal to century time scale cycles [Battisti, 1995;Li et al, 2013;L€ udecke et al, 2013] (ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/ paleo/treering/reconstructions/enso-li2013.txt). D. Logistic map [Feigenbaum, 1980].…”

Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Heartbeat of the Southern Oscillation explains ENSO climatic resonances

Bruun¹,

Allen

Smyth

2017

JGR Oceans

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The El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) nonlinear oscillator phenomenon has a far reaching influence on the climate and human activities. The up to 10 year quasi‐period cycle of the El Niño and subsequent La Niña is known to be dominated in the tropics by nonlinear physical interaction of wind with the equatorial waveguide in the Pacific. Long‐term cyclic phenomena do not feature in the current theory of the ENSO process. We update the theory by assessing low (>10 years) and high (<10 years) frequency coupling using evidence across tropical, extratropical, and Pacific basin scales. We analyze observations and model simulations with a highly accurate method called Dominant Frequency State Analysis (DFSA) to provide evidence of stable ENSO features. The observational data sets of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), North Pacific Index Anomaly, and ENSO Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly, as well as a theoretical model all confirm the existence of long‐term and short‐term climatic cycles of the ENSO process with resonance frequencies of {2.5, 3.8, 5, 12–14, 61–75, 180} years. This fundamental result shows long‐term and short‐term signal coupling with mode locking across the dominant ENSO dynamics. These dominant oscillation frequency dynamics, defined as ENSO frequency states, contain a stable attractor with three frequencies in resonance allowing us to coin the term Heartbeat of the Southern Oscillation due to its characteristic shape. We predict future ENSO states based on a stable hysteresis scenario of short‐term and long‐term ENSO oscillations over the next century.

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Multi-periodic climate dynamics: spectral analysis of long-term instrumental and proxy temperature records

Cited by 32 publications

References 23 publications

The complex planetary synchronization structure of the solar system

The complex planetary synchronization structure of the solar system

Harmonic Analysis of Worldwide Temperature Proxies for 2000 Years

Heartbeat of the Southern Oscillation explains ENSO climatic resonances

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