Multi-year load growth-based optimal planning of grid-connected microgrid considering long-term load demand forecasting: A case study of Tehran, Iran

Techno‐economic optimization of a grid‐connected hybrid energy system considering electric and thermal load prediction

“…Predicting upcoming annual peak load values from the previous years' annual peak load values is a practical and efficient way to calculate yearly load growth rates. 22 The steps for predicting load peak values are indicated in Figure 2. While there are a number of classical and computational intelligence (CI)-based methods to predict annual peak load values, exponential smoothing is an efficient and simple-toimplement method.…”

“…According to the assessments by Ref. 22, the prediction accuracy of the exponential smoothing method in comparison with complex methods like artificial neural networks is fairly satisfying. Hence, utilizing the exponential smoothing method could be beneficial because firstly, it is a simple-to-implement method and other researchers in the field can efficiently perform the proposed methodology of this paper; secondly, in contrast to complex methods, exponential smoothing is eased from heavy computational burden through efficient mathematical computations.…”

“…Very few studies considered load growth rates in the planning of hybrid energy systems. 21,22 The authors of Ref. 21 considered a fixed electrical load growth rate based on a simple assumption.…”

“…Considering a fixed rate may not be accurate enough because, as illustrated in Figure 1, load consumption has an upward trend in the country. The recent paper 22 is the other study that considered electrical load growth rate more efficiently. Using four years of historical load data, they forecasted seven years of load demand by utilizing multi-layer perceptron artificial neural networks.…”

Dynamic optimization of solar‐wind hybrid system connected to electrical battery or hydrogen as an energy storage system

“…Also, a general comparison between the system and a diesel system was presented to express the influential role of the proposed system in reducing GHG emissions. Faraji et al 20 optimized a grid‐connected PV‐wind‐battery system in Tehran using Homer software. The main feature of this work was to find the optimal sizes taking into account the load growth rate for the next years.…”