Multi-Zone Infection Risk Assessment Model of Airborne Virus Transmission on a Cruise Ship Using CONTAM

Abstract

Since the onset of the pandemic, the cruise industry has faced substantial challenges, experiencing an 81% year-on-year decline in 2020. Notably, China’s cruise industry has remained shuttered for nearly two years. The conventional epidemiological investigations relying on human memory have proven inadequate in regard to swiftly and reliably identifying high-risk populations, thus leading to excessive pandemic prevention or other inappropriate measures. Furthermore, current research endeavors have not adequately addressed the critical issues of isolation location selection and the estimation of isolation scale within multi-zone indoor environments. Therefore, how to control the epidemic with minimal impact on the public has become an urgent problem. To solve the problems mentioned above, a multi-zone infection risk assessment model of airborne virus transmission was proposed to rapidly qualify the risk of infection, identify the high-risk population, and provide guidance. The model can be divided into two parts, including a multi-zone airflow model and a risk assessment model based on the Wells–Riley model. A large in-service ro-ro passenger ship already in service was used for the application of the proposed method. The results show that the number of isolated rooms shall be at least 5% of the occupancy and the isolation location can be chosen through the multi-zone infection risk assessment model. This paper provides insights into risk assessment to mitigate the spread of epidemics on a large cruise ship, and the method can be easily applied to all kinds of multi-zone indoor environments.