Multidecadal convection permitting climate simulations over Belgium: sensitivity of future precipitation extremes

Saeed, Sajjad; Brisson, Erwan; Demuzere, Matthias; Tabari, Hossein; Willems, Patrick; Lipzig, Nicole Van

doi:10.1002/asl.720

Cited by 22 publications

(18 citation statements)

References 31 publications

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“…Another important issue in this context is that climate change results are highly model dependent so that even opposite climate change signals may be achieved from different types of climate models 5 – 7 . This is mainly due to the fact that climate models with different resolutions and physics provide different representations of surface heterogeneities and mesoscale climatological structures 8 – 10 . To better understand the added value of fine-scale climate models versus coarse-scale ones, it is important to quantify the extent to which the discrepancy between driving and driven climate models varies with seasons.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Seasonally varying footprint of climate change on precipitation in the Middle East

Tabari

Willems

2018

Sci Rep

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Climate change is expected to alter precipitation patterns; however, the amplitude of the change may broadly differ across seasons. Combining different seasons may mask contrasting climate change signals in individual seasons, leading to weakened signals and misleading impact results. A realistic assessment of future climate change is of great importance for arid regions, which are more vulnerable to any change in extreme events as their infrastructure is less experienced or not well adapted for extreme conditions. Our results show that climate change signals and associated uncertainties over the Middle East region remarkably vary with seasons. The region is identified as a climate change hotspot where rare extreme precipitation events are expected to intensify for all seasons, with a “highest increase in autumn, lowest increase in spring” pattern which switches to the “increase in autumn, decrease in spring” pattern for less extreme precipitation. This pattern is also held for mean precipitation, violating the “wet gets wetter, dry gets drier” paradigm.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Seasonally varying footprint of climate change on precipitation in the Middle East

Tabari

Willems

2018

Sci Rep

Self Cite

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“…The first CPM at climate length scales run for a future climate was at a resolution of 1.5 km over Southern England (Kendon et al, ; Kendon et al, ). To date, CPM models (i.e., <4 km) are only available for limited regions of Europe, and do not provide full coverage of Italy, although a full Europe CPM run is underway with results expected in 2018 (Saeed et al, ; Tabari et al, ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The impact of climate change on extreme precipitation in Sicily, Italy

Forestieri

Arnone

Blenkinsop

et al. 2018

Hydrological Processes

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Increasing precipitation extremes are one of the possible consequences of a warmer climate. These may exceed the capacity of urban drainage systems, and thus impact the urban environment. Because short‐duration precipitation events are primarily responsible for flooding in urban systems, it is important to assess the response of extreme precipitation at hourly (or sub‐hourly) scales to a warming climate. This study aims to evaluate the projected changes in extreme rainfall events across the region of Sicily (Italy) and, for two urban areas, to assess possible changes in Depth‐Duration‐Frequency (DDF) curves. We used Regional Climate Model outputs from Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment for Europe area ensemble simulations at a ~12 km spatial resolution, for the current period and 2 future horizons under the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 scenario. Extreme events at the daily scale were first investigated by comparing the quantiles estimated from rain gauge observations and Regional Climate Model outputs. Second, we implemented a temporal downscaling approach to estimate rainfall for sub‐daily durations from the modelled daily precipitation, and, lastly, we analysed future projections at daily and sub‐daily scales. A frequency distribution was fitted to annual maxima time series for the sub‐daily durations to derive the DDF curves for 2 future time horizons and the 2 urban areas. The overall results showed a raising of the growth curves for the future horizons, indicating an increase in the intensity of extreme precipitation, especially for the shortest durations. The DDF curves highlight a general increase of extreme quantiles for the 2 urban areas, thus underlining the risk of failure of the existing urban drainage systems under more severe events.

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“…This type of change is in line with other studies. For instance, the work in [51] reported a future increase (decrease) in extreme precipitation over the north (south) of Belgium simulated by a Convective Permitting Scale (CPS) model, while non-CPS models did not corroborate this geographical pattern. The work in [12,52] also indicated an increase in extreme precipitation (and in dry days for [52]) over Belgian in a warmer climate.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Precipitation Evolution over Belgium by 2100 and Sensitivity to Convective Schemes Using the Regional Climate Model MAR

et al. 2019

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The first aim of this study is to determine if changes in precipitation and more specifically in convective precipitation are projected in a warmer climate over Belgium. The second aim is to evaluate if these changes are dependent on the convective scheme used. For this purpose, the regional climate model Modèle Atmosphérique Régional (MAR) was forced by two general circulation models (NorESM1-M and MIROC5) with five convective schemes (namely: two versions of the Bechtold schemes, the Betts–Miller–Janjić scheme, the Kain–Fritsch scheme, and the modified Tiedtke scheme) in order to assess changes in future precipitation quantities/distributions and associated uncertainties. In a warmer climate (using RCP8.5), our model simulates a small increase of convective precipitation, but lower than the anomalies and the interannual variability over the current climate, since all MAR experiments simulate a stronger warming in the upper troposphere than in the lower atmospheric layers, favoring more stable conditions. No change is also projected in extreme precipitation nor in the ratio of convective precipitation. While MAR is more sensitive to the convective scheme when forced by GCMs than when forced by ERA-Interim over the current climate, projected changes from all MAR experiments compare well.

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Multidecadal convection permitting climate simulations over Belgium: sensitivity of future precipitation extremes

Cited by 22 publications

References 31 publications

Seasonally varying footprint of climate change on precipitation in the Middle East

Seasonally varying footprint of climate change on precipitation in the Middle East

The impact of climate change on extreme precipitation in Sicily, Italy

Precipitation Evolution over Belgium by 2100 and Sensitivity to Convective Schemes Using the Regional Climate Model MAR

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