Multifeature-Based Variational Mode Decomposition–Temporal Convolutional Network–Long Short-Term Memory for Short-Term Forecasting of the Load of Port Power Systems

Abstract

Accurate short-term forecasting of power load is essential for the reliable operation of the comprehensive energy systems of ports and for effectively reducing energy consumption. Owing to the complexity of port systems, traditional load forecasting methods often struggle to capture the non-linearity and multifactorial interactions within the factors creating power load. To address these challenges, this study combines variational mode decomposition (VMD), temporal convolutional network (TCN), and long short-term memory (LSTM) network to develop a multi-feature-based VMD-TCN-LSTM model for the short-term forecasting of the power load of ports. VMD is first used to decompose the power load series of ports into multiple, relatively stable components to mitigate volatility. Furthermore, meteorological and temporal features are introduced into the TCN-LSTM model, which combines the temporal feature extraction capability of the TCN and the long term-dependent learning capability of the LSTM. Comparative analyses with other common forecasting models using the observed power load data from a coastal port in China demonstrate that the proposed forecasting model achieves a higher prediction accuracy, with an R-squared value of 0.94, mean squared error of 3.59 MW, and a mean absolute percentage error of 2.36%.