NDVI predicts birth seasonality in historical Baja California Sur, Mexico: adaptive responses to arid ecosystems and the North American Monsoon

Macfarlan, Shane J.; Schacht, Ryan; Bourland, Izabella; Kapp, Savannah; Glad, Trevor; Lewis, Lauren; Claflin, Spencer; Darmiento, Nathan; Clegg, Tanner; Thorpe, Cole; Peppelar, Taylor; Hall, R. Grace; Nguyen, Brian; Davis, Connor A.; Santiago, Melissa; Henrickson, Celeste

doi:10.1080/19485565.2020.1870924

Cited by 8 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 42 publications

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“…NDVI is an indicator of the greenness of an area and has been largely used to estimate plant biomass (Carlson & Ripley, 1997). NDVI has previously been used to estimate food availability (Dezeure et al , in press; Baniel et al , 2018; Dezeure et al , 2021; Walton et al , 2021) in several baboons populations and has also proved relevant to predict reproductive seasonality in humans (Macfarlan et al , 2021).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evolutionary determinants of reproductive seasonality: a theoretical approach

Burtschell

Dezeure

Godelle

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Reproductive seasonality is a major adaptation to seasonal cycles and varies substantially among organisms. This variation, which was long thought to reflect a simple latitudinal gradient, remains poorly understood for many species, in part due to a lacunary theoretical framework. Because seasonal cycles are increasingly disrupted by climate change, a better understanding of the ecology of reproductive seasonality could generate important insights on how climate change may affect biodiversity. The goal of this study was to investigate the drivers of evolutionary transitions towards reproductive seasonality using a realistic agent-based optimisation model simulating the life cycle of a female yellow baboon, who typically breeds year-round. Specifically, we tested the influence of three ecological traits (environmental seasonality, productivity and unpredictability) and three life-history traits (daily reproductive energy expenditure, reproductive cycle length and infant extrinsic mortality) on the intensity of reproductive seasonality. To do so, we simulated diverse reproductive phenology strategies (from non-seasonal to highly seasonal), assessed which were optimal and computed, for the set of optimal strategies, the intensity of reproductive seasonality. We then induced variation in each trait of interest and examined how it affected the intensity of reproductive seasonality. We found significant effects of all three environmental traits: high reproductive seasonality was favoured by high environmental seasonality, low environmental productivity and low unpredictability. It was further, and most strongly, favoured by high daily reproductive energy expenditure. In contrast, there was no significant effect of reproductive cycle length and infant extrinsic mortality. Our modelling approach successfully disentangled the effects of environmental seasonality, productivity and unpredictability on the intensity of reproductive seasonality, which likely all contribute to generate the well-known association between latitude and reproductive seasonality. Our results further highlight the critical importance of life history pace on the evolution of reproductive seasonality. Overall, this study contributes a powerful theoretical framework and modelling tool that may apply across the life-history space, as well as sheds new light on the emergence and maintenance of non-seasonal breeding in slow-living species, including humans.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evolutionary determinants of reproductive seasonality: a theoretical approach

Burtschell

Dezeure

Godelle

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Development of a graphical resilience framework to understand a coupled human-natural system in a remote arid highland of Baja California Sur

et al. 2022

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Hydrological systems are important to society as water resources and effective management requires an understanding of how water and humans influence each other. To describe human-water connections it is necessary to bridge social and natural sciences. To this end, we construct an interdisciplinary graphical framework for evaluating potential human-water system resilience, which is a tool to show the spatial and temporal response to system change of both human and natural systems. This helps to identify the ways that human responses to change relate to changing water resources and identifies important thresholds and potential disconnects that would create vulnerability. We further use this tool to describe a dynamic, coupled human-water system present in the arid Sierra de la Giganta region of Baja California Sur, Mexico. In this remote mountain range, there is a community (self-identifying as Choyeros) who rely on spring water for ranching and subsistence. Using mixed methods of hydrogeochemistry and anthropology, we describe spatial connectivity and temporal changes of both hydrologic and social systems. We use these observations to examine the Choyero response to system changes and explore the topology of the various approaches that the community employs to adapt to changing water availability. The framework guides dialogue to constrain the types of policies, strategies, and responses that help to promote the sustainability of water resources. This framework can be used to compare systems across spatio-temporal scales to produce more generalizable and communicable insights of coupled human-natural systems.

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