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Due to the concern for animal and human health, efforts to develop mathema cal and computa onal models for predic ng the spa al and temporal dynamics of infec ous diseases, including rabies, are constantly increasing. Therefore, our goal was to model the dynamics of the spread of rabies by foxes, dogs, and cats on the territory of Vinnytsia Oblast in the period from 2012 to 2018. To study and analyse the dynamic spread of rabies in me and space, an informa on-analy cal technology was developed, which is based on retrospec ve data from registered cases of rabies. The rabies transmission parameter was determined using official epizootological data from the regional oblast veterinary laboratory and the regional department of the State Service of Ukraine On Food Safety and Consumer Protec on. It was found that rabies spread the most among dogs and cats at a distance of up to 50 km in the winter (26.45%), from 50 to 100 km -in the autumn (40.33%), over 100 km -in the summer (49.84%). In general, domes c carnivores were sources of rabies within a radius of 50 km in only 16.98% of cases, and within a radius of 100 km -in 55.95% of cases. Foxes were sources of rabies within a radius of 50 km in only 24.33% of cases and within a radius of 100 km in 58.54% of cases. At the same me, the highest spread of rabies among the foxes at a distance of up to 50 km was observed in the spring (31.01%), from 50 to 100 km -in the winter (43.67%), and over 100 km -in the summer (48.38%). The new data will be useful in planning and carrying out preven ve anrabies measures. In the future, it is planned to conduct the modelling in terms of all regions and create forecasts for the spread of rabies on the territory of Ukraine.
Due to the concern for animal and human health, efforts to develop mathema cal and computa onal models for predic ng the spa al and temporal dynamics of infec ous diseases, including rabies, are constantly increasing. Therefore, our goal was to model the dynamics of the spread of rabies by foxes, dogs, and cats on the territory of Vinnytsia Oblast in the period from 2012 to 2018. To study and analyse the dynamic spread of rabies in me and space, an informa on-analy cal technology was developed, which is based on retrospec ve data from registered cases of rabies. The rabies transmission parameter was determined using official epizootological data from the regional oblast veterinary laboratory and the regional department of the State Service of Ukraine On Food Safety and Consumer Protec on. It was found that rabies spread the most among dogs and cats at a distance of up to 50 km in the winter (26.45%), from 50 to 100 km -in the autumn (40.33%), over 100 km -in the summer (49.84%). In general, domes c carnivores were sources of rabies within a radius of 50 km in only 16.98% of cases, and within a radius of 100 km -in 55.95% of cases. Foxes were sources of rabies within a radius of 50 km in only 24.33% of cases and within a radius of 100 km in 58.54% of cases. At the same me, the highest spread of rabies among the foxes at a distance of up to 50 km was observed in the spring (31.01%), from 50 to 100 km -in the winter (43.67%), and over 100 km -in the summer (48.38%). The new data will be useful in planning and carrying out preven ve anrabies measures. In the future, it is planned to conduct the modelling in terms of all regions and create forecasts for the spread of rabies on the territory of Ukraine.
Ukraine remains the only country in Europe where rabies is widespread among animals and humans. Annually there are about 1,600 rabies cases in animals in Ukraine and sporadic cases in humans have been registered despite the conducting of preventive measures. Therefore, the aim of the study was to inspect the failures in rabies prevention, indicate the top reasons for human cases and highlights the risk of animal attacks in view of their species and geographical distribution in Ukraine during 1996–2020. The following archival state materials were used for analysis: from the Ministry of Health of Ukraine and from the annual reports of oblast departments of the State Service of Ukraine for Food Safety and Consumer Protection. In general, more than 84,000 people (187.4 per 100,000 of the population) were affected by bites or harmful contact with animals every year, among them, 2,155 people were victims of rabid animals. Post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) was prescribed annually, on average, for 21,434 patients (25.5% of all victims). Most people were attacked by cats and dogs that had owners (71.5%). The frequency of the proportion of the risk of attacks by rabid dogs on humans was (1:124), from cats (1:25), wild animals (1:7), and farm animals (1:2), but the largest general proportion of animal attacks on people was from dogs – 838,635 attacks (77.7%). Thus, due to the permanently higher level of contact with people, attacks by dogs remains more dangerous. Geographically attacks on humans by domestic carnivores were observed most commonly in the east part of Ukraine due to the high urbanization of the region and the high density of the human population. A large number of attacks by foxes was observed in the west part of Ukraine due to the larger area of forests and fields. During the last 25 years, there have been 63 human rabies cases. The main sources of rabies were dogs (24 cases) and cats (22 cases). The main causes of development of rabies were: failure to receive the PEP due to the absence of a visit to a hospital after an attack of an animal (n = 38), failures in prescribing PEP (n = 15), failure of PEP (n = 10). In conclusion, the gaps in the control measures against rabies are the lack of agreed coordination of inter-sectoral links, the lack of significant efforts to raise public awareness and the lack of funding for prophylaxis programmes for humans and animals. Our future research will be aimed at modelling the transmission of rabies from the pet population to humans.
One of the main zoonoses that causes significant social and economic damage to health, livestock development and the economy as a whole, especially in developing countries, is rabies. According to other estimates, the total damage from rabies is about $ 124 billion a year. Given that about 1 million animals die each year in the world, this complements the enormous economic damage to the world economy. However, despite the fact that rabies in wild and domestic animals poses a threat to human life and significant damage due to livestock loss, there are few studies to date that examine the economic impact of rabies among animals. Ukraine is no exception and for our country the importance of rabies cannot be overestimated, as there is both a veterinary and a medical and social component. Given that animal husbandry is the basis of the food base and a source of income for the state, the financial losses from the death of animals require detailed study. The purpose of the study is to investigate the economic losses from rabies among farm animals in Ukraine over the past decade and to show the economic feasibility of preventive measures. Analyzing the results of rabies incidence, we took into account the official data of annual reports of regional laboratories of veterinary medicine of the State Food and Consumer Services of Ukraine in the period from 2009 to 2018. Epizootological methods of research, analysis, synthesis, generalization of scientific-methodical and special literature and statistical methods are used in the work. Standard methods of MS Excel were used for statistical calculations. Categories of economic losses were established in the analysis of the main methodological provisions of the economics of veterinary medicine in animal husbandry. Given the fact that rabies, unlike other infectious diseases, registers 100% mortality of animals, the corpses of which, according to the instructions, must be burned, the categories of damage due to rabies are differentiated into losses from death, forced slaughter and destruction of animals, losses from non-production, disposal of carcasses and processing of raw materials from suspicious animals. It is established that during the 10-year period (2009-2018), according to the official data of the annual reports of the regional branches of the State Food and Consumer Service of Ukraine, 1762 farm animals fell ill with rabies. From them among cattle - 1512 heads, DRH - 200 heads, horses - 37 heads, pigs - 13 heads. According to our calculations, the economic losses from death or forced slaughter due to rabies in all species of farm animals in the period from 2009 to 2018 amounted to UAH 17,228,874. The calculation of losses from the shortage of raw materials (milk, meat, wool) was carried out only for cattle and sheep. According to the results the damage from the shortage of raw materials for cattle significantly exceeds the losses due to the death of animals. The calculation of the damage for the disposal of corpses was carried out taking into account the fact that the only type of disposal for rabies is incineration, and according to the instructions, the corpses of animals killed, dead or suspected of burning are burned together with the skin. As can be seen from Table 3, the losses from the disposal of carcasses of all farm animals killed by rabies for 10 years amounted to more than 8 million UAH. (UAH 8264613), of which UAH 7.9 million. only because of rabies in cattle, which is too much for a disease that could be prevented by preventive vaccination. If we calculate the total amount of economic damage, then for cattle for one year the losses are more than 8 million, and for 10 years, more than 80 million UAH, respectively. Based on the data listed in table 4, we can conclude that during 2009-2018 due to the death of farm animals from rabies, animal owners received total economic losses amounting to UAH 81,701,590, of which 98.7% relate to losses from death. Cattle, firstly, due to the largest number of sick animals, secondly, due to the lack of cattle in addition to meat and dairy products, and thirdly, significant costs for cremation of carcasses. Because the carcasses are large and it is forbidden to dissect the carcass, special large furnaces or trenches are needed to burn cattle. As of 2019, according to official data from the State Food and Consumer Service, the most tense epizootic situation was in five oblasts: Vinnytsia - 346, Cherkasy - 231, Khmelnytsky - 122, Zaporizhia - 114, Zhytomyr - 68 cases per year. Therefore, in our opinion, the introduction of the annual vaccination against cattle rabies, which is in the farms of the population in these five regions, will significantly reduce the number of cases among cattle. Given the number of livestock in these areas, we estimate that the number of animals to be vaccinated is 570,000. As rabies prevention measures are actively carried out at the state level and according to the Prozoro portal, the State Food and Consumer Service purchased Rabistar vaccines in the amount of UAH 82.86 million (number of doses 5.03 million, cost of one dose UAH 13.14), then, given the work of the service, it is quite possible to plan appropriate measures, realizing that veterinary costs will be: 570400 x 13.14 UAH. = UAH 7,495,056. Thus, vaccination of the entire herd of cows in the farms of the population in the five areas with the most intense epizootic situation with regard to cattle rabies would not only reduce to a minimum the number of cases of rabies among this species in the country as a whole, but also would have a fairly high economic efficiency. Thus, each hryvnia of veterinary costs aimed at the prevention of rabies among cattle in disadvantaged regions warns 9.03 UAH. losses in animal husbandry. In conclusion, it is necessary for the State Food and Consumer Service of Ukraine to consider the issue of vaccination of cattle and cattle in regions with a severe epizootic situation with regard to rabies and to assess the risks of rabies. We propose to develop and implement a national program on rabies control in Ukraine, to hold professional and public hearings, where some issues will consider the financing of rabies control measures, which should be based on SWOT analysis, risk assessment and modeling of rabies processes. Prospects for further research include assessing the risk of spreading rabies from pets and auditing the level of vaccination of dogs and cats with a depth of retrospection of at least 10 years.
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