New entrants and overcapacity: lessons from regional aircraft manufacturing

Abstract

The commercial aircraft manufacturing industry has been largely dominated by the advanced economies in North America and Western Europe. During recent decades, several emerging economies have invested heavily in the commercial aircraft industry, notably in regional aircraft manufacturing. This paper describes the global regional aircraft industry by comparing the demand and available production capacity. A small number of companies are currently active in this industry and able to satisfy demand. Yet, a larger number of companies are starting or planning to start production. Under these conditions and forecasted demands, overcapacity is a likely result. Four propositions are developed to explain the behaviour of new entrants.