New hybrid method for vulnerability assessment in floodplain areas exposed to dam break

Abstract

Natural and man‐made factors can cause dam failure, which constantly threatens downstream assets. Flood risk assessment is typically developed according to the hydraulic and geographic characteristics of floodplain regions. However, previous approaches have not considered asset values and the impacts of flooding on them, including threat probability and consequences. This report presents a new integrated hybrid model based on security vulnerability assessment and hydraulic analysis of floods and uses the source‐pathway‐receptor‐consequences (SPRC) approach to comprehensively examine all factors. A questionnaire survey was used for performing threat analysis and attractiveness analysis and determining the asset values and consequences. A geographical information system was applied to superimpose layers based on the SPRC approach in five different scenarios based on piping discharge and downstream flow in the case of a dam break. These scenarios were developed considering the basin water level. The results illustrate that residential areas have the highest vulnerability, and farmlands exhibit the lowest exposure to flooding caused by dam failure. Based on the attraction to terrorism, criticality due to consequences, and flooding characteristics, high‐risk zones were identified for implementing mitigation or protection countermeasures.