New paths for modelling freshwater nature futures

Kramer, Lilith; Teurlincx, Sven; Rashleigh, Brenda; Janssen, Annette B. G.; Janse, Jan H.; Brauman, Kate A.; Földesi, Csaba; van Wijk, Dianneke; de Senerpont Domis, Lisette N.; Patil, Sopan D.; Rashidi, Parinaz; Hamel, Perrine; Rising, James; Mooij, Wolf M.; Kuiper, Jan J.

doi:10.1007/s11625-023-01341-0

Cited by 5 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 131 publications

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“…Examples include aesthetic and biodiversity costs to blooms, which different people value to different extents. Estimating these costs therefore involves collecting and combining these different values, a challenging task that can be aided by tools like the Nature Futures Framework (Pereira et al, 2020; Kramer et al, 2023a).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Consequences of alternative stable states for short-term model-based control of cyanobacterial blooms

Jacobs,

van Voorn,

van Heijster

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Cyanobacteria can form dense blooms in eutrophic lakes that can be toxic to humans and other animals and harmful to the ecosystem’s functioning. While better nutrient management is generally considered the long-term solution to this problem, short-term mitigation efforts (e.g., flushing, algaecides, flocculants) are becoming increasingly necessary to safeguard water quality and the ecosystem services it provides. Here, we explore potential model-based management strategies for these short-term mitigation efforts. We focus on the case where blooms are linked to the existence of alternative stable states, such that, under the same conditions but depending on the past, a lake may be dominated either by cyanobacteria (causing a harmful algal bloom) or by green algae and macrophytes in a clear water state. Changing conditions may cause the favourable clear water state to disappear through a tipping point, causing the lake to switch rapidly to the turbid cyanobacteria state. At the same time, it may take considerable effort to undo this tipping and return to the favourable state. We identify four different strategies for bloom mitigation in this scenario: Doing nothing, reacting to a bloom, resetting the lake at a later point, and preventing the bloom. We explore the different requirements for these strategies along with their associated cost profiles. We also investigate the effect of transition times from one state to another on the efficacy and costs of different strategies.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Consequences of alternative stable states for short-term model-based control of cyanobacterial blooms

Jacobs,

van Voorn,

van Heijster

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Identifying nature-positive futures in new cities: an application of the Urban Nature Futures Framework

Shaikh,

Hamel

2023

Sustain Sci

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With the increasing loss of biodiversity due to urbanization, it is essential to examine and re-imagine the place of nature in cities. The opportunity to redesign positive relationships between cities and nature is particularly apparent in the development of new cities—rapidly developing areas observed in many Asian and African countries. As these new cities are built on a perceived tabula rasa, there is a potential to design positive nature futures. This study, therefore, aims to understand how nature is incorporated into existing plans for new cities and identify pro-nature perspectives envisioned within these plans. We use the Urban Nature Futures Framework (UNFF) to conduct a content analysis on the masterplans of new city and town developments within the Jakarta Metropolitan Area (JMA). The UNFF promotes the creation of multiple positive visions of nature in cities by considering three broad nature perspectives: Nature for Nature, Nature for Society, and Nature as Culture, as well as emphasizing equity in these visions. Our findings show that the Nature for Society perspective tends to dominate the design of new cities in the JMA, closely followed by the Nature for Nature perspective embodied by pollution control measures. New cities also emphasise the Nature as Culture perspective through nature stewardship programmes. Based on these results, we exemplify how the UNFF can be used to further integrate nature elements in new cities’ masterplans. We conclude with a discussion of the strengths and limitations of the framework at each stage of the new city development process.

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Consequences of alternative stable states for short-term model-based control of cyanobacterial blooms

Jacobs,

van Voorn,

van Heijster

et al. 2024

Ecological Modelling

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New paths for modelling freshwater nature futures

Cited by 5 publications

References 131 publications

Consequences of alternative stable states for short-term model-based control of cyanobacterial blooms

Consequences of alternative stable states for short-term model-based control of cyanobacterial blooms

Identifying nature-positive futures in new cities: an application of the Urban Nature Futures Framework

Consequences of alternative stable states for short-term model-based control of cyanobacterial blooms

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