Newly Industrialized Countries: Is There an Alternative to the Golden Billion?

Abstract

In order to identify the features of economic development and the historical fate of new industrial countries (NIC), an econometric analysis of their strategies and development dynamics since 1950 was carried out based on the parameters of real GDP growth rates and their standard deviation. 6 types of development were identified. The dynamics of development for 8 economic cycles and paired correlations between countries are estimated. 4 waves of growth rates and 5 waves of MSD were revealed. It is hypothesized that the correlation of growth rates shows the similarity of countries in their use of opportunities, and the correlation of MSD shows that of their responses to threats. Connection graphs are constructed and 3 clusters of countries with similar historical destinies are obtained as a result of the analysis. It is recorded that there are 3 groups of 11 countries with a similar development strategy. The other 10 have no development analogues. Determined: China applies import substitution and export strategies, it can become the leader of the NIC and compete with the global dominance of the OECD countries; the post-industrial development of the NIC cannot be based on a liberal, import-substituting or export strategy. As an alternative, a strategy for improving the living standards is proposed.

Comparison of the economic development of countries spreading Spanish culture

“…In the study of global indicators for the period since 1930, this method has been applied to every global economic cycle [26]. The linearization of these data showed very close characteristics with the line adopted in the study of newly industrialized countries [32], with the maximum discrepancies revealed in the period before 1950. For our study, the standards for the period since 1950 are taken from the other study [32].…”

“…This research method was applied in the study of the economic development of Russia in the imperial, Soviet and modern historical periods [27], together with factorial and functional analysis, it was applied concerning the study of the quality of governance of the post-Soviet governments of Russia [28], as well as in the comparative analysis of German-speaking [29], French-speaking [30], Portuguese-speaking [31] and newly industrialized countries [32].…”

“…In line with this principle in the study of newly industrialized countries [32] in the period since 1950, the following points were selected: maximum -China according to the official data of national statistics [35] for the period 1951-2019 and the global indicator for 1951-2008 [33]. The latter indicator clearly defines the long-term boundary between old and newly industrialized countries.…”

Features Of Economic Development Policies For New Industrial Countries

“…This research scheme is described in detail in (Savelyev, 2020a) and applied to study the development of Russia in the imperial, Soviet and modern periods (Savelyev et al, 2020b), in relation to German-speaking countries (Savelyev et al, 2020a), Portuguese-speaking and French-speaking (Savelyev et al, 2021a(Savelyev et al, , 2021b, as well as in combination with factor analysis to analyze the activities of Russian governments over the past 30 years (Savelyev et al, 2021c). With regard to the development of newly industrialized countries, this study builds on our previous study (Savelyev et al, 2021d), but for a wider range of countries.…”

Influence Of Culture And Institutions On Economic Development In The British World

“…We applied this "research method in the study of the economic development of Russia in the imperial, Soviet and modern historical periods" (Savelyev et al, 2020b, p. 20), together with https://doi.org/ 10. 15405/epsbs.2021.09.02.93 Corresponding Author: M. S. Kozyrev Selection and peer-review under responsibility of the Organizing Committee of the conference eISSN: 2357-1330 821 factorial and functional analysis, it was applied in relation to the study of the quality of governance of the post-Soviet governments of Russia (Savelyev et al, 2021c), as well as in a comparative analysis of Germanspeaking (Savelyev et al, 2020b), French-speaking (Savelyev et al, 2021b), Portuguese-speaking (Savelyev et al, 2021b) and newly industrialized countries (Savelyev et al, 2021d). The data sources were: data up to 2008 -Angus Maddison Historical Statistics database (Maddison, 2008), From 2009 to 2019 -The Conference Board, Total Economy Database (TED, 2021).…”