Nomogram for the prediction of postoperative hypoxemia in patients with acute aortic dissection

et al. 2020

J Cardiothorac Surg

Background: Neurological complications is a common complication following novel triple-branched stent graft implantation in patients with Stanford type A aortic dissection (AAD). But the incidence and risk factors of postoperative delirium (POD) are not completely clear. The aim of this study was to investigate the incidence and risk factors of POD after novel triple-branched stent graft implantation. Methods: An observational study of AAD patients who underwent novel triple-branched stent graft implantation between January 2017 and July 2019 were followed up after surgery. Patients' delirium was screened by the Richmond Agitation-Sedation Scale and the Confusion Assessment Method for the intensive care unit from the first day after the operation, lasted 5 days. The risk factors of POD were analyzed by the Cox proportional hazard models. Results: A total of 280 AAD patients were enrolled in this research, the incidence of POD was 37.86%. Adjusting for age, body mass index, and mechanical ventilation duration, multivariate Cox regression analysis model revealed that non-manual work (adjusted hazard ratio [AHR] = .554; 95% CI: 0.335-0.915; P = .021), Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE-II) scores > 20 (AHR = 3.359, 95% CI: 1.707-6.609, P < .001), hypoxemia (AHR = 1.846, 95% CI: 1.118-3.048, P = .017), and more than two types of analgesics and sedatives were independently associated with POD. Conclusions: This study showed that risk factors independently associated with POD were APACHE-II score > 20, hypoxemia, and more types of analgesics and sedatives, and non-manual work was the protective factor. Trial registration: This study was retrospectively registered in the Chinese Clinical Trial Registry (Registration number: ChiCTR1900022408; Date: 2019/4/10).

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk factors for postoperative delirium in patients with triple-branched stent graft implantation

Lin

Chen

et al. 2020

J Cardiothorac Surg

“…According to reports, the incidence of hypoxemia after AD is 20.4%-49.5% [23] . Kazmierski et al [23] indicated that postoperative hypoxemia (PaO2 < 60mmHg) was an independent risk factor for delirium after cardiac surgery. In this research, we found that the incidence of hypoxemia during and after AD surgery was 24.29%.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk factors for postoperative delirium in patients with triple-branched stent graft implantation

Lin

Chen

et al. 2020

Preprint

Background: Neurological complications is a common complication following novel triple-branched stent graft implantation in patients with Stanford type A aortic dissection (AAD). But the incidence and risk factors of postoperative delirium (POD) are not completely clear. The aim of this study was to investigate the incidence and risk factors of POD after novel triple-branched stent graft implantation.Methods: An observational study of AAD patients who underwent novel triple-branched stent graft implantation between January 2017 and July 2019 were followed up after surgery. Patients’ delirium was screened by the Richmond Agitation-Sedation Scale and the Confusion Assessment Method for the intensive care unit from the first day after the operation, lasted 5 days. The risk factors of POD were analyzed by the Cox proportional hazard models.Results: A total of 280 AAD patients were enrolled in this research, the incidence of POD was 37.86%. Adjusting for age, body mass index, and mechanical ventilation duration, multivariate Cox regression analysis model revealed that non-manual work (adjusted hazard ratio [AHR] = .554; 95% CI: 0.335-0.915; P = .021), Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE-II) scores > 20 (AHR = 3.359, 95% CI: 1.707-6.609, P < .001), hypoxemia (AHR = 1.846, 95% CI: 1.118-3.048, P = .017), and more than two types of analgesics and sedatives were independently associated with POD.Conclusions: This study showed that risk factors independently associated with POD were APACHE-II score > 20, hypoxemia, and more types of analgesics and sedatives, and non-manual work was the protective factor.Trial registration: This study was retrospectively registered in the Chinese Clinical Trial Registry (Registration number: ChiCTR1900022408; Date: 2019/4/10)

“…The nomogram as a visualization tool has been widely used in clinical prognosis research on critical patient and cancer patient survival studies (12)(13)(14). The primary aim of the present study is to develop a novel prediction nomogram for the 28-day mortality risk in SIC patients.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Development of a Nomogram to Predict 28-Day Mortality of Patients With Sepsis-Induced Coagulopathy: An Analysis of the MIMIC-III Database

Hong

et al. 2021

Front. Med.

Background: Sepsis-induced coagulopathy (SIC) is a common cause for inducing poor prognosis of critically ill patients in intensive care unit (ICU). However, currently there are no tools specifically designed for assessing short-term mortality in SIC patients. This study aimed to develop a practical nomogram to predict the risk of 28-day mortality in SIC patients.Methods: In this retrospective cohort study, we extracted patients from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III (MIMIC-III) database. Sepsis was defined based on Sepsis 3.0 criteria and SIC based on Toshiaki Iba's criteria. Kaplan–Meier curves were plotted to compare the short survival time between SIC and non-SIC patients. Afterward, only SIC cohort was randomly divided into training or validation set. We employed univariate logistic regression and stepwise multivariate analysis to select predictive features. The proposed nomogram was developed based on multivariate logistic regression model, and the discrimination and calibration were verified by internal validation. We then compared model discrimination with other traditional severity scores and machine learning models.Results: 9432 sepsis patients in MIMIC III were enrolled, in which 3280 (34.8%) patients were diagnosed as SIC during the first ICU admission. SIC was independently associated with the 7- and 28-day mortality of ICU patients. K–M curve indicated a significant difference in 7-day (Log-Rank: P < 0.001 and P = 0.017) and 28-day survival (Log-Rank: P < 0.001 and P < 0.001) between SIC and non-SIC groups whether the propensity score match (PSM) was balanced or not. For nomogram development, a total of thirteen variables of 3,280 SIC patients were enrolled. When predicted the risk of 28-day mortality, the nomogram performed a good discrimination in training and validation sets (AUROC: 0.78 and 0.81). The AUROC values were 0.80, 0.81, 0.71, 0.70, 0.74, and 0.60 for random forest, support vector machine, sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score, logistic organ dysfunction score (LODS), simplified acute physiology II score (SAPS II) and SIC score, respectively, in validation set. And the nomogram calibration slope was 0.91, the Brier value was 0.15. As presented by the decision curve analyses, the nomogram always obtained more net benefit when compared with other severity scores.Conclusions: SIC is independently related to the short-term mortality of ICU patients. The nomogram achieved an optimal prediction of 28-day mortality in SIC patient, which can lead to a better prognostics assessment. However, the discriminative ability of the nomogram requires validation in external cohorts to further improve generalizability.