Nomogram predicting the cancer-specific survival of early-onset colorectal cancer patients with synchronous liver metastasis: a population-based study

Ding, Xiangming; Yang, Xiaodong; Wu, Dingfeng; Huang, Yao; Dai, Yanwen; Li, Jiajing; Chang, Weilong; Chi, Mozhen; Tian, Shaobo

doi:10.1007/s00384-022-04175-x

Cited by 9 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 24 publications

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“…Nomogram models integrate multiple related indicators. Nomogram prediction models have been shown to successfully predict the prognosis of many diseases (26)(27)(28)(29)(30). This study established a prediction model and found that the prediction value of this model was high.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 91%

Establishment and validation of a predictive model of recurrence in primary hepatocellular carcinoma after resection

Xu¹,

Han²,

Cao³

et al. 2023

J Gastrointest Oncol

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Background: In recent years, nomogram prediction models have been widely used to evaluate the prognosis of various diseases. However, studies in primary hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) are limited. This study sought to explore the risk factors of recurrence of patients with primary HCC after surgical resection and establish a nomogram prediction model. Methods:The data of 424 patients with primary HCC who had been admitted to the Wuhan Third Hospital were retrospectively collected. The patients were followed-up for 5 years after surgery. The patients were divided into the recurrence group (n=189) and control group (n=235) according to whether the cancer recurred after surgery. The differences in the clinical characteristics between the two groups were analyzed.The risk factors of recurrence after surgical resection of primary HCC were also analyzed, and a prediction model was then established using R4.0.3 statistical software.Results: There were significant statistical differences between the two groups in terms of the tumor size, systemic immune-inflammation (SII) index, the number of lesions, tumor differentiation degree, ascites, vascular invasion, and portal vein tumor thrombus (P<0.05). The multivariate regression analysis showed that multiple foci, poorly differentiated tumors, ascites, vascular invasion, and portal vein tumor thrombus were risk factors for the recurrence of primary HCC in patients after surgical resection (P<0.05). The data set was randomly divided into a training set and verification set. The sample size of the training set was 297, and the sample size of the verification set was 127. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of the training set was 0.866 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.824-0.907], and the area under the ROC curve of the validation set was 0.812 (95% CI: 0.734-0.890). The Hosmer-Lemeshow Goodness-of-Fit Test was used to test the model with the validation set (χ 2 =11.243, P=0.188), which indicated that the model had high value in predicting the recurrence of primary HCC after surgical resection.Conclusions: This model had high value in predicting the recurrence of primary HCC in patients after surgical resection. This model could assist clinicians to assess the prognosis of patients. Intensive treatment for high-risk patients might improve the prognosis of patients.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 91%

Establishment and validation of a predictive model of recurrence in primary hepatocellular carcinoma after resection

Xu¹,

Han²,

Cao³

et al. 2023

J Gastrointest Oncol

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“…The primary tumor locations served were a significant risk factor that might impact survival prognosis in this models, and this observation has also been confirmed by other studies ( 24 – 26 ). One research showed that patients with right-sided disease had worse survival outcomes than those with left -sided disease ( 12 ). Moreover, according to Shida et al.’s national multicenter retrospective study, right-sided CRC (RCRC) patients had a significantly lower OS than left-sided CRC (LCRC) patients ( 27 ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A retrospective study by Ding et al. showed the 5-year cancer-specific survival rate was influenced by some independent factors, such as primary tumor location, chemotherapy, and histopathological grade ( 12 ). Another indicated that the excision of the original tumor and liver metastases was substantially linked with the OS for YO-CRCSLM ( 9 ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Development and validation of a clinical survival model for young-onset colorectal cancer with synchronous liver-only metastases: a SEER population-based study and external validation

Liang

Wang

et al. 2023

Front. Oncol.

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BackgroundThe morbidity and mortality of young-onset colorectal cancer (YO-CRC) patients have been increasing in recent years. Moreover, YO-CRC patients with synchronous liver-only metastases (YO-CRCSLM) have various survival outcomes. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to construct and validate a prognostic nomogram for patients with YO-CRCSLM.MethodsThe YO-CRCSLM patients were rigorously screened from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database in January 2010 and December 2018 and then assigned to a training and validation cohort randomly (1488 and 639 patients, respectively). Moreover, the 122 YO-CRCSLM patients who were enrolled in The First Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University were served as a testing cohort. The variables were selected using the multivariable Cox model based on the training cohort and then developed a nomogram. The validation and testing cohort were used to validate the model’s predictive accuracy. The calibration plots were used to determine the Nomogram’s discriminative capabilities and precision, and the decision analysis (DCA) was performed to evaluate the Nomogram’s net benefit. Finally, the Kaplan-Meier survival analyses were performed for the stratified patients based on total nomogram scores classified by the X-tile software.ResultsThe Nomogram was constructed including ten variables: marital status, primary site, grade, metastatic lymph nodes ratio (LNR), T stage, N stage, carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA), Surgery, and chemotherapy. The Nomogram performed admirably in the validation and testing group according to the calibration curves. The DCA analyses showed good clinical utility values. Low-risk patients (score<234) had significantly better survival outcomes than middle-risk (234–318) and high-risk (>318) patients (P < 0.001).ConclusionA nomogram predicting the survival outcomes for patients with YO-CRCSLM was developed. In addition to facilitating personalized survival prediction, this nomogram may assist in developing clinical treatment strategies for patients with YO-CRCSLM who are undergoing treatment.

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“…Last, and most importantly, several nomograms were unreasonable in clinical context. For example, it was paradoxical that patients with grade I had a worse prognosis than those with grade II ( 15 , 16 , 18 ). Similar to the “grade paradox”, there were also “race/ethnicity paradox” ( 13 , 14 , 19 , 20 ), “T stage paradox” ( 16 , 18 , 19 ), “histologic subtypes paradox” ( 21 ), and “primary site paradox” ( 15 , 18 , 21 , 22 ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Construction and validation of a nomogram for predicting overall survival of patients with stage III/IV early−onset colorectal cancer

Yin,

Pei,

et al. 2024

Front. Oncol.

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PurposeThis study aimed to identify prognostic factors and develop a nomogram for predicting overall survival (OS) in stage III/IV early-onset colorectal cancer (EO-CRC).MethodsStage III/IV EO-CRC patients were identified from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database between 2010 and 2015. The datasets were randomly divided (2:1) into training and validation sets. A nomogram predicting OS was developed based on the prognostic factors identified by Cox regression analysis in the training cohort. Moreover, the predictive performance of the nomogram was assessed using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration plots, and decision curve analysis (DCA). Subsequently, the internal validation was performed using the validation cohort. Finally, a risk stratification system was established based on the constructed nomogram.ResultsOf the 10,387 patients diagnosed with stage III/IV EO-CRC between 2010 and 2015 in the SEER database, 8,130 patients were included. In the training cohort (n=3,071), sex, marital status, race/ethnicity, primary site, histologic subtypes, grade, T stage, and N stage were identified as independent prognostic variables for OS. The 1-, 3-, and 5-year area under the curve (AUC) values of the nomogram were robust in both the training (0.751, 0.739, and 0.723) and validation cohorts (0.748, 0.733, and 0.720). ROC, calibration plots, and DCA indicated good predictive performance of the nomogram in both the training and validation sets. Furthermore, patients were categorized into low-, middle-, and high-risk groups based on the nomogram risk score. Kaplan-Meier curve showed significant survival differences between the three groups.ConclusionWe developed a prognostic nomogram and risk stratification system for stage III/IV EO-CRC, which may facilitate clinical decision-making and individual prognosis prediction.

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Nomogram predicting the cancer-specific survival of early-onset colorectal cancer patients with synchronous liver metastasis: a population-based study

Cited by 9 publications

References 24 publications

Establishment and validation of a predictive model of recurrence in primary hepatocellular carcinoma after resection

Establishment and validation of a predictive model of recurrence in primary hepatocellular carcinoma after resection

Development and validation of a clinical survival model for young-onset colorectal cancer with synchronous liver-only metastases: a SEER population-based study and external validation

Construction and validation of a nomogram for predicting overall survival of patients with stage III/IV early−onset colorectal cancer

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