Nomograms to estimate long‐term overall survival and tongue cancer‐specific survival of patients with tongue squamous cell carcinoma

Abstract

The aim of this study was to construct nomograms to predict long‐term overall survival (OS) and tongue cancer‐specific survival (TCSS) of tongue squamous cell carcinoma (TSCC) patients based on clinical and tumor characteristics. Clinical, tumor, and treatment characteristics of 12,674 patients diagnosed with TSCC between 2004 and 2013 were collected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. These patients were then divided into surgery and nonsurgery cohorts, and nomograms were developed for each of these groups. The step‐down method and cumulative incidence function were used for model selection to determine the significant prognostic factors associated with OS and TCSS. These prognostic variables were incorporated into nomograms. An external cohort was used to validate the surgery nomograms. Seven variables were used to create the surgery nomograms for OS and TCSS, which had c‐indexes of 0.709 and 0.728, respectively; for the external validation cohort, the c‐indexes were 0.691 and 0.711, respectively. Nine variables were used to create the nonsurgery nomograms for OS and TCSS, which had c‐indexes of 0.750 and 0.754, respectively. The calibration curves of the 5‐ and 8‐year surgery and nonsurgery nomograms showed excellent agreement between the probabilities and observed values. By incorporating clinicopathological and host characteristics in patients, we are the first to establish nomograms that accurately predict prognosis for individual patients with TSCC. These nomograms ought to provide more personalized and reliable prognostic information, and improve clinical decision‐making for TSCC patients.

Nomograms for predicting long‐term overall survival and cancer‐specific survival in lip squamous cell carcinoma: A population‐based study

“…In contrast to the AJCC staging system being based on assessments of the prognosis in risk groups, we sought to develop and validate predictive nomograms for predicting the 3‐, 5‐, and 8‐year OS and CSS rates in individual LSCC patients. By including readily available and important prognostic factors, such nomograms can provide quantifiable prognostic predictions for each patient …”

Three prognostic indexes as predictors of response to adjuvant chemoradiotherapy in patients with oral squamous cell carcinoma after radical surgery: A large‐scale prospective study

“…Based on these prognostic factors, the present study at first stage developed and validated a nomogram with a high survival predictive ability and good calibration. Although previous studies have established several nomograms for OSCC, some of the variables incorporated are costly biomarkers which may not be widely available especially for developing countries, and some studies were conducted with short‐term follow‐up which would not accurately predict the long‐term survival . Moreover, given that different surgical procedures, patients' factors and other affecting factors, it is uncertain whether these nomograms can be applicable to the patients in the southeast of China.…”

Nomogram for predicting cancer-specific survival of patients with buccal squamous cell carcinoma: a population-based study

“…There are still limitation that it does not include important risk factors such as pathological grade, age, and treatment measures for the AJCC staging system to predict the prognosis of BSCC. [13]. Therefore, this study aimed to established a more comprehensive predictive model that included system demographics and other clinical parameters, rather than AJCC staging.…”