Nomograms to predict progression of disease within 24 months in patients with localized natural killer/T-cell lymphoma

Abstract

Aims: Progression of disease within 24 months (POD24) is associated with poor survival in some subtypes of lymphoma.The aim is to identify high-risk patients with localized extranodal natural killer/T-cell lymphoma (ENKTL) and to define clinical factors associated with the risk of early recurrence after antitumor treatment. Methods: The authors retrospectively analyzed 330 cases with localized ENKTL, of which 89 experienced POD24. Results: The 5-year overall survival of the POD24 group was extremely inferior to that of the non-POD24 group. Risk factors for POD24 were Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status ≥2, response evaluation (non-complete remission) after first-line treatment and elevated lactate dehydrogenase concentrations. Also, higher Epstein–Barr virus DNA titer was related to POD24. Based on these data with or without the availability of Epstein–Barr virus DNA, the authors conducted two nomograms to predict POD24, which showed good accuracy with high C statistics. Conclusion: The results showed that POD24 could serve as a marker to identify patients whose medical needs were unmet in ENKTL.