Numerical modeling analysis of the mesoscale environment conducive to two tornado events using the COSMO.Gr model over Greece

Avgoustoglou, E.; Matsangouras, Ioannis T.; Pytharoulis, I.; Kamperakis, Nikolaos; Mylonas, Markos P.; Nastos, P. T.; Bluestein, Howard

doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2017.07.022

Cited by 7 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…COSMO is an NWP model used operatively in several European and extra‐European countries belonging to the eponymous consortium (i.e. Italy, Marsigli et al ., 2005; Germany, Baldauf et al ., 2011; Romania, Dumitrache et al ., 2011; Russia, Rivin et al ., 2015; Poland, Starosta and Wyszogrodzki, 2016; Greece, Avgoustoglou et al ., 2018; Israel, Hochman et al ., 2018; Switzerland, Klasa et al ., 2018). COSMO employs the primitive non‐hydrostatic thermo‐hydrodynamical equations for a compressible flow in a moist atmosphere.…”

Section: Data and Validation Strategymentioning

confidence: 99%

SPHERA, a new convection‐permitting regional reanalysis over Italy: Improving the description of heavy rainfall

Giordani

Cerenzia

Paccagnella

et al. 2023

Quart J Royal Meteoro Soc

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Regional reanalyses allow us to better describe weather patterns related to rapidly evolving high‐impact events thanks to substantially finer detailing than global datasets. However, most regional datasets still do not permit the explicit representation of deep convection. SPHERA (High rEsolution ReAnalysis over Italy) is a new high‐resolution convection‐permitting reanalysis centred over Italy. It covers 26 years (1995–2020), is based on the non‐hydrostatic limited‐area model COSMO, and is produced by dynamically downscaling the global reanalysis ERA5. A nudging data assimilation scheme steers the model toward observations. The fine horizontal grid spacing of 2.2 km allows us to switch off deep‐convection parametrization. This study reports the added value of SPHERA over ERA5 in representing rainfall over Italy, particularly for severe precipitation, using rain‐gauge observations during 2003–2017 as reference. Concerning the 95th percentile of spatial rainfall distributions, ERA5 presents dry estimates with biases reaching −12 mm·day−1 over mountainous regions. At the same time, the enhanced locally driven effects of SPHERA produce seasonal biases ranging from wet in JJA (up to +12 mm·day−1) to dry in DJF (down to −9 mm·day−1). For daily maximum rates, the regional reanalysis shows better skill in detecting occurred events (with hit rates higher than ERA5 by roughly 0.4 points in the range of 15–80 mm·day−1) and frequency biases closer to 0 at all intensities when coming to daily averages. Similarly, for hourly maximum accumulations, improved adherence to observations is detected for SPHERA at all intensities, conversely to the underprediction of the global driver (with frequency biases <1 starting from 1.5 mm·hr−1). Additionally, the analyses of two specific events reveal the enhancements of SPHERA in simulating extreme precipitation, with a maximum intensity underestimation on the order of 24% versus the 73% detected for ERA5. Further improvements include the spatial detailing, timing, and temporal evolution of the events.

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Section: Data and Validation Strategymentioning

confidence: 99%

SPHERA, a new convection‐permitting regional reanalysis over Italy: Improving the description of heavy rainfall

Giordani

Cerenzia

Paccagnella

et al. 2023

Quart J Royal Meteoro Soc

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“…the convective available potential energy, CAPE, wind shear) from kilometer-scale forecast models to assess the potential for a tornadic event (e.g. Gallo et al, 2016Gallo et al, , 2018Avgoustoglou et al, 2017), which is known as the ingredients-based approach. Based on proximity soundings or numerical weather prediction output, environments favorable for tornadoes were identified and multiple indices developed (e.g.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Hamburg Tornado (7 June 2016) from the perspective of low-cost high-resolution radar data and weather forecast model

Hoffmann

Merker

Lengfeld

et al. 2018

Atmospheric Research

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A B S T R A C TA tornado hit the northeastern suburbs of Hamburg, Germany, on 7 June 2016. It had an estimated strength of upper end F1 on the Fujita scale and was short-lived with an approximate duration of only 13 min and a path length of just about 1.3 km. We demonstrate that such a small-scale, extreme event can be observed and forecasted accurately by a low-cost radar and by an atmospheric model with low computational costs, respectively.Observations from a low-cost single polarized X-band radar covering the urban area of Hamburg with 60 m spatial and 30 s temporal resolution are analyzed with respect to their ability to capture the development as well as the track of the tornado. In contrast to the national C-band radar network, the X-band radar is capable of capturing the hook echo of the tornado as well as the circular pattern in rain rates, because of its higher resolution in space and time.High-resolution forecasts of the tornado event are conducted with the computational efficient Conformal Cubic Atmosphere Model (CCAM) in order to test the capability of predicting the tornado with a lead time of a few hours. A three step downscaling method is used to obtain a spatial resolution of 1 km with initial conditions taken from the NCEP analysis. Calculated severe weather indices clearly indicate a potential for a tornado. CCAM cannot explicitly resolve small scale tornadic features but the model simulates a strong convective cell only a few kilometers apart from the tornadic thunderstorm observed by the radar.

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Did the “Tauktae” cyclone impact the upper atmosphere through traveling ionospheric disturbances? A case study over the Arabian Sea using measurements from InSWIM network stations

Chowdhury,

Choudhary,

Subrahamanyam

2024

Advances in Space Research

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Numerical modeling analysis of the mesoscale environment conducive to two tornado events using the COSMO.Gr model over Greece

Cited by 7 publications

References 27 publications

SPHERA, a new convection‐permitting regional reanalysis over Italy: Improving the description of heavy rainfall

SPHERA, a new convection‐permitting regional reanalysis over Italy: Improving the description of heavy rainfall

The Hamburg Tornado (7 June 2016) from the perspective of low-cost high-resolution radar data and weather forecast model

Did the “Tauktae” cyclone impact the upper atmosphere through traveling ionospheric disturbances? A case study over the Arabian Sea using measurements from InSWIM network stations

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