Observed and Future Precipitation and Evapotranspiration in Water Management Zones of Uganda: CMIP6 Projections

Onyutha, Charles; Asiimwe, Arnold; Ayugi, Brian; Ngoma, Hamida; Ongoma, Victor; Tabari, Hossein

doi:10.3390/atmos12070887

Cited by 28 publications

(18 citation statements)

References 53 publications

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“…Generally, the projected increase in precipitation under a high emission scenario demonstrates the impact of anthropogenic GHG emissions. The results of this study agree with existing literature over EA that demonstrated the pronounced increase in precipitation under high emission scenarios as compared to the low forcing sustainability pathways (Onyutha et al 2021 ; Ayugi et al 2021b ; Makula and Zhou 2021 ). The recently released assessment report of the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group 1 (IPCC 2021 ) pointed to unprecedented changes that will affect the climate system due to human influence as a result of GHG emissions.…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 92%

Projected changes in meteorological drought over East Africa inferred from bias-adjusted CMIP6 models

et al. 2022

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The ongoing global warming has caused unprecedented changes in the climate system, leading to an increase in the intensity and frequency of weather and climate extremes. This study uses the sixth phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) data to investigate projected changes in drought events over East Africa (EA) under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) emission scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-4.0, and SSP5-8.5). The CMIP6 data are bias-corrected using a quantile mapping method, with the Climatic Research Unit's precipitation dataset as reference. Drought is quantified using the standardized precipitation index and different measures of drought are estimated: drought duration, drought frequency, drought severity, and drought intensity. Evaluating the accuracy and reliability of historical data before and after bias correction demonstrates the importance of the approach. The overall distribution after bias correction depicts a close agreement with observation. Moreover, the multi-model ensemble mean demonstrate superiority over individual Global Circulation Models. Projected future changes show enhancement in precipitation over most parts of EA in the far future under different SSP scenarios. However, the arid and semi-arid regions are expected to receive less amount of precipitation, whereas the highlands and lake regions are expected to receive a larger amount of precipitation increase. Furthermore, the dry areas of EA are likely to experience more frequent drought events with longer duration, stronger intensity, and severity in the far future. Overall, this study identifies possible drought hotspots over EA, enabling early preparation for such events. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11069-022-05341-8.

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Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 92%

Projected changes in meteorological drought over East Africa inferred from bias-adjusted CMIP6 models

et al. 2022

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“…This is in accordance with the findings of [76,80], which reported that the percentage of the change in low flow is greater than that in high flow, and that the increasing rates of high flow are more serious under RCP8.5 than under RCP2.6 and RCP4.5. The predicted streamflow trend corresponds to variations and trends in precipitation and evapotranspiration [48,81]. These findings are consistent with the growing evidence that the world is warming.…”

Section: Streamflow Under Climate Changesupporting

confidence: 87%

“…Moreover, Dai, et al [70] evaluated the relationship between the Palmer Drought Index and soil moisture, as well as the effects of surface heat, concluding that the probability of drought will rise as anthropogenic global warming progresses due to higher temperatures and increased drying. Several studies [48,61,71] have also reported an increase in temperature across the African tropics. Furthermore, Nooni, et al [72] reported that humid tropical and equatorial zones are expected to experience a significant increase in ET, especially in central and eastern Africa.…”

Section: Impact Of Climate Change On Evapotranspirationmentioning

confidence: 97%

“…The absolute or relative differences between the GCMs' outputs for the baseline and future periods were computed for the data used in this study. The estimated changes were interpolated to high-resolution grids based on the assumption that climate change is relatively stable over space (high spatial autocorrelation) [48]. Before being input into the SWAT model, changes were clustered into low, mean, and high ranks for each emission scenario, and for all considered runs that passed the performance evaluation.…”

Section: Downscaling Of Future Climate Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Future Climate Change Impact on the Nyabugogo Catchment Water Balance in Rwanda

Umugwaneza

Chen

Liu

et al. 2021

Water

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Droughts and floods are common in tropical regions, including Rwanda, and are likely to be aggravated by climate change. Consequently, assessing the effects of climate change on hydrological systems has become critical. The goal of this study is to analyze the impact of climate change on the water balance in the Nyabugogo catchment by downscaling 10 global climate models (GCMs) from CMIP6 using the inverse distance weighting (IDW) method. To apply climate change signals under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) (low and high emission) scenarios, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used. For the baseline scenario, the period 1950–2014 was employed, whereas the periods 2020–2050 and 2050–2100 were used for future scenario analysis. The streamflow was projected to decrease by 7.2 and 3.49% under SSP126 in the 2020–2050 and 2050–2100 periods, respectively; under SSP585, it showed a 3.26% increase in 2020–2050 and a 4.53% decrease in 2050–2100. The average annual surface runoff was projected to decrease by 11.66 (4.40)% under SSP126 in the 2020–2050 (2050–2100) period, while an increase of 3.25% in 2020–2050 and a decline of 5.42% in 2050–2100 were expected under SSP585. Climate change is expected to have an impact on the components of the hydrological cycle (such as streamflow and surface runoff). This situation may, therefore, lead to an increase in water stress, calling for the integrated management of available water resources in order to match the increasing water demand in the study area. This study’s findings could be useful for the establishment of adaptation plans to climate change, managing water resources, and water engineering.

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“…Recent studies have shown that the EA region is likely to experience a significant increase in precipitation occurrence during the OND season as compared to the MAM season [37,77,78]. Understanding the evolution of extreme events in the wake of the projected increase in precipitation remains a crucial task.…”

Section: Future Changes In Short-rain Seasonmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future Changes in Precipitation Extremes over East Africa Based on CMIP6 Models

Ayugi

Dike

Ngoma

et al. 2021

Water

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This paper presents an analysis of projected precipitation extremes over the East African region. The study employs six indices defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection Indices to evaluate extreme precipitation. Observed datasets and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase six (CMIP6) simulations are employed to assess the changes during the two main rainfall seasons: March to May (MAM) and October to December (OND). The results show an increase in consecutive dry days (CDD) and decrease in consecutive wet days (CWD) towards the end of the 21st century (2081–2100) relative to the baseline period (1995–2014) in both seasons. Moreover, simple daily intensity (SDII), very wet days (R95 p), very heavy precipitation >20 mm (R20 mm), and total wet-day precipitation (PRCPTOT) demonstrate significant changes during OND compared to the MAM season. The spatial variation for extreme incidences shows likely intensification over Uganda and most parts of Kenya, while a reduction is observed over the Tanzania region. The increase in projected extremes may pose a serious threat to the sustainability of societal infrastructure and ecosystem wellbeing. The results from these analyses present an opportunity to understand the emergence of extreme events and the capability of model outputs from CMIP6 in estimating the projected changes. More studies are recommended to examine the underlying physical features modulating the occurrence of extreme incidences projected for relevant policies.

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Observed and Future Precipitation and Evapotranspiration in Water Management Zones of Uganda: CMIP6 Projections

Cited by 28 publications

References 53 publications

Projected changes in meteorological drought over East Africa inferred from bias-adjusted CMIP6 models

Projected changes in meteorological drought over East Africa inferred from bias-adjusted CMIP6 models

Future Climate Change Impact on the Nyabugogo Catchment Water Balance in Rwanda

Future Changes in Precipitation Extremes over East Africa Based on CMIP6 Models

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