Observed changes in summer thermal discomfort over Indian region during 1990–2020

Naskar, Pravat Rabi; Pattanaik, D. R.

doi:10.1007/s12040-023-02056-7

Cited by 7 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 45 publications

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“…Particularly, under the SSP 5–8.5 scenario, the highly suitable area decreased by 19%, which will likely have a detrimental impact on the crop's productivity as a result of changes in temperature and rainfall patterns. The present study explores the assessment of suitable land for turmeric cultivation in Kerala, both in the present context of 2020 and in the anticipated conditions for 2050, leveraging the CMIP6 MIROC6 model climate data 49,50 . A pivotal observation emerges, underscoring a discernible shift in the characteristics of currently suitable lands, predominantly transitioning towards moderately or marginally suitable categories 51 .…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 98%

Land suitability analysis for turmeric crop for humid tropical Kerala, India, under current and future climate scenarios using advanced geospatial techniques

Banu,

Krishnamurthy,

Srinivasan

et al. 2024

J Sci Food Agric

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BACKGROUNDTurmeric cultivation primarily thrives in India, followed by Bangladesh, Cambodia, Thailand, China, Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines. India leads globally in both area and production of turmeric. Despite this, there is a recognized gap in research regarding the impact of climate change on site suitability of turmeric. The primary objective of the present study was to evaluate both the present and future suitability of turmeric cultivation within the humid tropical region of Kerala, India, by employing advanced geospatial techniques. The research utilized meteorological data from the Indian Meteorological Department for the period of 1986–2020 as historical data and projected future data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). Four climatic scenarios of shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change AR6 model of MIROC6 for the year 2050 (SSP 1–2.6, SSP 2–4.5, SSP 3–7.0 and SSP 5–8.5) were used.RESULTSThe results showed that suitable area for turmeric cultivation is declining in future scenario and this decline can be primarily attributed to fluctuations in temperature and an anticipated increase in rainfall in the year 2050. Notable changes in the spatial distribution of suitable areas over time were observed through the application of geographic information system (GIS) techniques. Importantly, as per the suitability criteria provided by ICAR‐National Bureau of Soil Survey and Land Use Planning (ICAR‐NBSS & LUP), all the districts in Kerala exhibited moderately suitable conditions for turmeric cultivation. With the GIS tools, the study identified highly suitable, moderately suitable, marginally suitable and not suitable areas of turmeric cultivation in Kerala. Presently 28% of area falls under highly suitable, 41% of area falls under moderately suitable and 11% falls under not suitable for turmeric cultivation. However, considering the projected scenarios for 2050 under the SSP framework, there will be a significant decrease in highly suitable area by 19% under SSP 5–8.5. This reduction in area will have an impact on the productivity of the crop as a result of changes in temperature and rainfall patterns.CONCLUSIONThe outcome of the present research suggests that the state of Kerala needs to implement suitable climate change adaptation and management strategies for sustaining the turmeric cultivation. Additionally, the present study includes a discussion on potential management strategies to address the challenges posed by changing climatic conditions for optimizing turmeric production in the region. © 2024 Society of Chemical Industry.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 98%

Land suitability analysis for turmeric crop for humid tropical Kerala, India, under current and future climate scenarios using advanced geospatial techniques

Banu,

Krishnamurthy,

Srinivasan

et al. 2024

J Sci Food Agric

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“…The observed spatio-temporal variability in the impact caused by such heat stress conditions is studied based on different heat stress/ discomfort indices. In a study by Naskar and Pattanaik 2023, the heat stress (measured based on thermal discomfort index), also shows a long-term increasing trend over different parts of the Indian region. Studies have tried to quantify the impact of different meteorological parameters in causing the heat stress in India.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 98%

Attribution of Subseasonal Temperature Modes as the Drivers of Dry and Moist Heat Discomfort for the Heat Hazard monitoring over the Indian region

Lekshmi,

Chattopadhyay,

Pai

2023

Preprint

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Heatwaves are often driven by subtropical persistent highs and quasi-stationary Rossby waves, along with regional factors such as soil moisture. Both temperature and humidity variability play an important role in the regional heatwave patterns. Studies have differentiated the dry and moist heatwave-related extremes both in terms of their driving mechanism and in their impact on human health. With the increase in the intensity, frequency and duration of heatwaves in recent decades, the impact-based forecasting and monitoring (IBF) of heatwaves has assumed significance. Current operational IBF indices, especially over the Indian region, are empirical and do not necessarily consider the modal dynamics or their role in the impact of dry and moist heat-related discomfort. In this study, based on two large-scale intraseasonal modes of summer temperature variability, the driving mechanisms of dry and moist heat extremes over the Indian region are identified. The regional scale impact, identified based on the Heat Index, is driven by these two large-scale modes. The first mode provides conditions conducive for the formation of the dry heat extremes. The second mode drives the regional circulation, supporting the moisture inflow towards the coastal states. This inflow, along with the modal temperature pattern, drives the moist heat extremes over India. Based on the location of the principal components of these modes in the phase space, the heat-related health risk associated with the dominant modes is assessed. Warnings for different phases of dry and moist heat extremes occurring over the Indian region are also proposed for operational use.

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Attribution of subseasonal temperature modes as the drivers of dry and moist heat discomfort for the heat hazard monitoring over the Indian region

Chattopadhyay,

Pai

2024

Clim Dyn

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Observed changes in summer thermal discomfort over Indian region during 1990–2020

Cited by 7 publications

References 45 publications

Land suitability analysis for turmeric crop for humid tropical Kerala, India, under current and future climate scenarios using advanced geospatial techniques

Land suitability analysis for turmeric crop for humid tropical Kerala, India, under current and future climate scenarios using advanced geospatial techniques

Attribution of Subseasonal Temperature Modes as the Drivers of Dry and Moist Heat Discomfort for the Heat Hazard monitoring over the Indian region

Attribution of subseasonal temperature modes as the drivers of dry and moist heat discomfort for the heat hazard monitoring over the Indian region

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