Ocean and atmosphere changes in the Caribbean Sea during the twenty-first century using CMIP5 models

Usta, David Francisco Bustos; Parra, Rafael Ricardo Torres

doi:10.1007/s10236-021-01462-z

Cited by 15 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 63 publications

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“…The conspicuous increase of Greenland Ice Sheet melting and its contribution to sea level rise in the future is largely determined by the intensity of Arctic amplification and the global equilibrium climate sensitivity 10 , 22 , 23 . As a robust feature of polar warming seen in historical observations and climate model simulations, polar amplification has been doubtful for the mechanism.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Different from the Arctic homogeneous warming, Antarctic temperature change is more complicated, with the general characteristic of faster warming in Antarctic Peninsula and West Antarctica than in East Antarctica 14, 15 and even with the regional warming absent 16,17 . The strong warming in high-elevation regions is an intrinsic feature of recent global warming 18 , and the warming magnitude over the Third Pole is smaller than that over high latitudes in the northern hemisphere 19,20 , but larger than Southern Hemisphere and tropics 21 .The conspicuous increase of Greenland Ice Sheet melting and its contribution to sea level rise in the future is largely determined by the intensity of Arctic amplification and the global equilibrium climate sensitivity 10,22,23 . As a robust feature of polar warming seen in historical observations and climate model simulations, polar amplification has been doubtful for the mechanism.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Polar amplification comparison among Earth’s three poles under different socioeconomic scenarios from CMIP6 surface air temperature

Xie

Jun

Kang

et al. 2022

Sci Rep

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The polar amplification (PA) has become the focus of climate change. However, there are seldom comparisons of amplification among Earth’s three poles of Arctic (latitude higher than 60 °N), Antarctica (Antarctic Ice Sheet) and the Third Pole (the High Mountain Asia with the elevation higher than 4000 m) under different socioeconomic scenarios. Based on CMIP6 multi-model ensemble, two types of PA index (PAI) have been defined to quantify the PA intensity and variations, and PAI1/PAI2 is defined as the ratio of the absolute value of surface air temperature linear trend over Earth’s three poles and that for global mean/over other regions except Earth’s three poles. Arctic warms fastest in winter and weakest in summer, followed by the Third Pole, and Antarctica warms least. The similar phenomenon proceeds when global warming of 1.5–2.0 °C, and 2.0–3.0 °C above pre-industrial levels. After removing the Earth’s three poles self-influence, all the PAI2s increase much more obviously relative to the PAI1s, especially the Antarctic PAI. Earth’s three poles warm faster than the other regions. With the forcing increasing, PA accelerates much more over Antarctica and the Third Pole, but becomes weaker over Arctic. This demonstrates that future warming rate might make a large difference among Earth’s three poles under different scenarios.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Polar amplification comparison among Earth’s three poles under different socioeconomic scenarios from CMIP6 surface air temperature

Xie

Jun

Kang

et al. 2022

Sci Rep

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“…The city has a significant relative mean sea level trend, which is higher than in other coastal stations studied in the region (Torres-Parra & Tsimplis, 2014). This trend is expected to increase in the future as a consequence of global warming (Bustos & Torres, 2021).…”

Section: Description Of the Area And Environmental Conditionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

East Asia Hydrographic Commission - Fifty Years of Progress

Nakabayashi¹

2022

IHR

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The year 2021 marks the 50th anniversary of the East Asia Hydrographic Commission (EAHC). It was established in 1971 as the third oldest Regional Hydrographic Commission located in East Asia. Since then, EAHC has progressed in cooperation of hydrographic services and in development of hydrographic technology for navigation safety and other aims. This article describing comprehensive historical steps and efforts of a Regional Hydrographic Commission in an important area of maritime transport will present readers a suggestive model of regional cooperation in hydrography. One of the suggestions can be summarized that the keys to development of Regional Hydrographic Commission are strong intention, initiative, unity and enthusiasm to leave no one behind.

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“…The former, are those outside the study (or managed) area and their causes cannot be directly tackled within that particular system. However, the system still needs to deal with their consequences or state changes, such as sedimentary unbalance, climate change, eustatic sea-level change, soil denudation/erosion in the basin, sea surface temperature change, plastic litter influxes (transported by marine currents and fluvial fluxes), increased flux of contaminants (e.g., litter and toxic substances) and nutrient inputs from the Magdalena river, among others (Restrepo-Ángel, 2008;Restrepo-Ángel et al, 2015;Restrepo et al, 2016;Tejeda-Benítez et al, 2018;Acosta-Coley et al, 2019;Bustos Usta and Torres Parra, 2021). On the other hand, the Endogenic Managed Pressures (EnMP) are those that occur within the study area and can be directly managed.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of the Magdalena River delta socio-ecological system through the Circles of Coastal Sustainability framework

2023

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River-mouth systems and deltas are hotspots where many of the coastal syndromes can be found. Moreover, these systems provide essential ecosystem services (e.g., recreation, food provisioning, protection against natural hazards). The present study focuses on the socio-ecological system at the delta of the Magdalena River in the central Caribbean Region in Colombia. This research seeks to assess the multidimensional sustainability of the Magdalena river-mouth system (MRm-SES) to improve the knowledge basis for its integrated management. To do so, an assessment tool named “Circles of Coastal Sustainability” (CCS) was used to evaluate the system splitting it into four domains (environmental, social, economic and governance) that were divided into 5 categories each. These domains were evaluated through a total of 52 indicators distributed like this: 16 for the Environmental domain, 16 for the Economic domain, 12 for the Social and Cultural domain and, 8 for the Governance domain. The results show that the overall sustainability of the MRm-SES is classified as “Satisfactory.” None of the domains is in “Excellent” or “Bad” conditions. However, the evaluation of the categories shows that four (4) of them have “Poor” conditions (i.e., Social Benefits, Demographics, Economic Security, and Resources Management). Hence, it is recommended to put those categories at the centre of the discussion to define management strategies (e.g., Preserving and restoring habitats; tackling sources of pollution and excessive sediment; local reduction of net Greenhouse Gas and adaptation to climate change; participation of local communities in the management design and implementation), without disregarding the interrelation with the other categories and dimensions. Finally, it is argued that despite all the improvement opportunities, the CCS is a valuable tool to evaluate and communicate with different stakeholders (academic community, managers and decision-makers, local communities, etc.), to improve the sustainability of coastal systems in Colombia and the world.

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Ocean and atmosphere changes in the Caribbean Sea during the twenty-first century using CMIP5 models

Cited by 15 publications

References 63 publications

Polar amplification comparison among Earth’s three poles under different socioeconomic scenarios from CMIP6 surface air temperature

Polar amplification comparison among Earth’s three poles under different socioeconomic scenarios from CMIP6 surface air temperature

East Asia Hydrographic Commission - Fifty Years of Progress

Assessment of the Magdalena River delta socio-ecological system through the Circles of Coastal Sustainability framework

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