Oil Factor in Economic Development

Abstract

The research examines the role of oil in the world economy and the evaluation of the oil factor in the economy of Azerbaijan. The error correction model (ECM) has been used in terms of reliability of the obtained results, and assessment has been done by the FMOLS, DOLS and CCR co-integration methods. Engel-Granger and Phillips-Ouliaris co-integration tests have been used for checking the co-integration relations among variables. Times series have been checked whether they are unit root (Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF), Phillips-Perron (PP) and Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS) as a methodology of the research. The results of the research reveal that daily oil production and consumption have less effect on the formation of the world oil prices. On the other hand, the impact of the world GDP and world industry production volume is a bit more. Generally, the influence of these factors on oil market has been reduced gradually. However, the reverse process is observed during the analysis of the influence of oil production and oil price on the main indicators of Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan. Therefore, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan are an oil-exporting countries which is why their macroeconomic indicators, especially currency, GDP and DNP, heavily depends on the oil factor. The research has been limited but highlights the obtained results to some problems and this must be considered as a new source for future research. Thus, the similar studies have been considered to be done thoroughly on several alternative econometric models, but a lack of statistical information on a yearly basis and strong currency intervention constitute some barriers to transiting to a floating currency. The practical importance of the research is to prove that the dependency of the oil prices on the world GDP and world industry production, daily oil production and world oil consumption have decreased gradually. In the second part of the research, the dependency of the Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan economies on oil was proved. This might be a signal to transfer oil resources into human capital.

Analysis of Oil Price Effect on Economic Growth of ASEAN Net Oil Exporters

“…Furthermore, the price of crude oil is used as a benchmark for economic perspectives, currency movement, inflation and to determine the level of political unrest in the Middle East, thus making it one of the most critical global macro indicator [1]. Among the major studies conducted on oil are the impact of oil prices on exchange rate [2][3][4], the impact of oil price shocks on stock market [5][6][7] and also the impact of oil price shocks on other macroeconomic variables mainly GDP [8][9][10].…”

Economic and Spatial Determinants of Energy Consumption in the European Union

“…Another variable to consider within this factor is the price of energy. Authors such as Humbatova and Qadim-Oglu Hajiyev [5] establish that it is a predominant element in the world economy. In this sense, dependence on fossil fuels, especially oil, still prevails as the main source of supply.…”

Impact of Oil Price Fluctuation on the Economy of Nigeria, the Core Analysis for Energy Producing Countries

“…In furtherance to clear the air on the causes of oil price fluctuations, which was generally believed to have outgrown the traditional demand and supply factors, Humbatova and Hajiyev [24] made references, to the Er-Riad summit of 2007 where conclusions where reached on the oil market trend that, it is not related to OPEC decisions. They concluded that the current trend is due to financialisation factors, lack of production capacities in oil production, reduction in the world oil reserves, natural disasters, political events and processes.…”

“…This indicates the exogeneity of oil price which is been determined by many factors that are exogenous to both net importers and exporters of oil, Nigerian inclusive. According to Humbatova and Hajiyev [24] posited that the determinants of oil price range from financial factors, lack of production capacities in oil production, the decline in the world oil reserves, natural disasters, political events and processes, and no one country has the monopoly of determining oil price.…”