On the Cognitive Surprise in Risk Management: An Analysis of the Value-at-Risk (VaR) Historical

And Suddenly, the Rain! How Surprises Shape Experienced Utility

“…Surprises are directly related to expectations and uncertainty about future outcomes. By definition, surprises emerge as a conflict with pre-existing beliefs (Baccan et al, 2015). From a psychological perspective, according to Schützwohl (1998), surprises result from schema-discrepancy, i.e., an inconsistency between activated schemas and newly acquired information.…”