On the development of mathematical models for the reliability evaluation of aircraft operation in combat conditions

Abstract

The authors of this study propose a methodological approach to modelling the reliability evaluation of aircraft operation in combat conditions. When developing recommendations on operational and strategic requirements for promising aircraft, a very important aspect is the elicitation of the requirements for their reliability, namely no-failure operation. Reliability as a parameter of any equipment should be set in the technical specifications for development together with other operational requirements in the form of reasonable quantitative indicators – reliability standards. The establishment of specific reliability standards stimulates its growth and creates the basis for rational design, taking into account the requirements of reliable operation. The analysis showed that different models can be used to simulate aircraft reliability. In this case, for example, the final values of mean time to failure (MTTF) would be different. The test results show that the methods and mathematical models used to substantiate the values of time and probability of trouble-free operation of aircraft do not fully correspond to the actual processes of changing their state during the use in the military. This is confirmed by a significant discrepancy in the values of reliability indicators implemented in practice. This was due to the fact that the acquainted mathematical models of aircraft reliability do not take into account the combat conditions in which they are supposed to operate. In addition, the reliability indicators used do not take into account possible changes (decrease) in these indicators during the period of aircraft operation. In general, the shortcomings inherent in the methods and mathematical models currently used to describe the aircraft reliability reduce the accuracy of the results obtained, and also do not quite adequately reflect the features of the corresponding process. When using different models, the cost of time to failure differs significantly. The more factors are taken into account, the greater the operating time to failure will be. This means that when designing aircraft, it is necessary to set the value of this indicator greater than indicated in the form. Taking into account additional factors complicates the model, but at the same time makes it more accurate.