On the Path to SunShot. Emerging Opportunities and Challenges in U.S. Solar Manufacturing

Abstract

Preface The U.S. Department of Energy launched the SunShot Initiative in 2011 with the goal of making solar electricity cost-competitive with conventionally generated electricity by 2020. At the time this meant reducing photovoltaic and concentrating solar power prices by approximately 75%relative to 2010 costs-across the residential, commercial, and utility-scale sectors. To examine the implications of this ambitious goal, the Department of Energy's Solar Energy Technologies Office (SETO) published the SunShot Vision Study in 2012. The study projected that achieving the SunShot price-reduction targets could result in solar meeting roughly 14% of U.S. electricity demand by 2030 and 27% by 2050-while reducing fossil fuel use, cutting emissions of greenhouse gases and other pollutants, creating solar-related jobs, and lowering consumer electricity bills. The SunShot Vision Study also acknowledged, however, that realizing the solar price and deployment targets would face a number of challenges. Both evolutionary and revolutionary technological changes would be required to hit the cost targets, as well as the capacity to manufacture these improved technologies at scale in the U.S. Additionally, operating the U.S. transmission and distribution grids with increasing quantities of solar energy would require advances in grid-integration technologies and techniques. Serious consideration would also have to be given to solar siting, regulation, and water use. Finally, substantial new financial resources and strategies would need to be directed toward solar deployment of this magnitude in a relatively short period of time. Still the study suggested that the resources required to overcome these challenges were well within the capabilities of the public and private sectors. SunShot-level price reductions, the study concluded, could accelerate the evolution toward a cleaner, more costeffective and more secure U.S. energy system. That was the assessment in 2012. Today, at the halfway mark to the SunShot Initiative's 2020 target date, it is a good time to take stock: How much progress has been made? What have we learned? What barriers and opportunities must still be addressed to ensure that solar technologies achieve cost parity in 2020 and realize their full potential in the decades beyond? To answer these questions, SETO launched the On the Path to SunShot series in early 2015 in collaboration with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and with contributions from Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Sandia National Laboratories (SNL), and Argonne National Laboratory (ANL). The series of technical reports focuses on the areas of grid integration, technology improvements, finance and policy evolution, and environment impacts and benefits. The resulting reports examine key topics that must be addressed to achieve the SunShot Initiative's price-reduction and deployment goals. The On the Path to SunShot series includes the following reports: • Emerging Issues and Challenges with Integrating High Levels of Solar i...

Revisiting thin silicon for photovoltaics: a technoeconomic perspective

“…Due to severe competition and rapid market expansion, most PV companies leverage higher debt in the capacity expansion (with D/E ratios of up to 5), which can be seen in their annual cash flow statements (according to the data from SEC company filings [35]). High debt for expansion was also reported previously by Chung et al [36]. It is generally very common that companies in the growth phase of their life cycle tend to have lower operating margins due to competition and leverage higher debts for market expansion [37].…”

On the Path to SunShot: Advancing Concentrating Solar Power Technology, Performance, and Dispatchability

“…• Emerging Issues and Challenges with Integrating High Levels of Solar into the Electrical Generation and Transmission Systems (Denholm et al 2016) • Emerging Issues and Challenges with Integrating High Levels of Solar into the Distribution System (Palmintier et al 2016) • Emerging Opportunities and Challenges in Financing Solar (Feldman and Bolinger 2016) • Utility Regulatory and Business Model Reforms for Addressing the Financial Impacts of Distributed Solar on Utilities (Barbose et al 2016) • The Role of Advancements in Photovoltaic Efficiency, Reliability, and Costs (Woodhouse et al 2016) • Advancing Concentrating Solar Power Technology, Performance, and Dispatchability (Mehos et al 2016) • Emerging Opportunities and Challenges in U.S. Solar Manufacturing (Chung et al 2016) • The Environmental and Public Health Benefits of Achieving High Penetrations of Solar Energy in the United States (Wiser et al 2016).…”

On the Path to SunShot. The Environmental and Public Health Benefits of Achieving High Solar Penetrations in the United States

“…Though we do not address electric-system costs or impacts in this analysis, DOE (2012) provides a thorough initial assessment of them. Moreover, other papers in the On the Path to SunShot Study series help inform such comparisons: Hartmann et al (forthcoming) review experience with siting large-scale solar plants and identify best practices aimed at minimizing environmental and human impacts; Denholm et al (2016) and Palmintier et al (2016) assess electric-system integration challenges; and Chung et al (2016) highlight the potential impacts of the solar industry on domestic manufacturing and jobs.…”

“…• Emerging Issues and Challenges with Integrating High Levels of Solar into the Electrical Generation and Transmission Systems (Denholm et al 2016) • Emerging Issues and Challenges with Integrating High Levels of Solar into the Distribution System (Palmintier et al 2016) • Emerging Opportunities and Challenges in Financing Solar (Feldman and Bolinger 2016) • On the Path to SunShot: Utility Regulatory and Business Model Reforms for Addressing the Financial Impacts of Distributed Solar on Utilities (Barbose et al 2016) • The Role of Advancements in Photovoltaic Efficiency, Reliability, and Costs (Woodhouse et al 2016) • Advancing Concentrating Solar Power Technology, Performance, and Dispatchability (Mehos et al 2016) • Emerging Opportunities and Challenges in U.S. Solar Manufacturing (Chung et al 2016) • The Environmental and Public Health Benefits of Achieving High Penetrations of Solar Energy in the United States (Wiser et al 2016).…”