On the sensitivity to different aspects of occupant behaviour for selecting the appropriate modelling complexity in building performance predictions

Gaetani, II Isabella; Hoes, P Pieter-Jan; Hensen, Jlm Jan

doi:10.1080/19401493.2016.1260159

Cited by 21 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 23 publications

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“…low and high IHG) on a performance indicator differ significantly from each other or not. In this study, scenarios in which 1-p > .95 are assumed to be sensitive [49]. Fig.…”

Section: Detailed Description Of Proposed Methodologymentioning

confidence: 99%

A methodology for performance robustness assessment of low-energy buildings using scenario analysis

2018

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• A novel methodology for performance robustness assessment is proposed.• Multi-criteria assessment is carried out using predicted performance and robustness.• The minimax regret method is used to identify robust designs.• A multi-criteria decision making strategy is implemented to select robust designs. A R T I C L E I N F O Keywords:Robust design Low-energy buildings Future scenarios Occupant behavior Performance assessment Robustness assessment Design decision making A B S T R A C T Uncertainties in building operation and external factors such as occupant behavior, climate change, policy changes etc. impact building performance, resulting in possible performance deviation during operation compared to the predicted performance in the design phase. Multiple low-energy building configurations can lead to similar optimal performance under deterministic conditions, but can have different magnitudes of performance deviation under these uncertainties. Low-energy buildings must be robust so that these uncertainties do not result in significant variations in energy use, cost and comfort. However, these uncertainties are rarely considered in the design of low-energy buildings and hence, the decision making process may result in designs that are sensitive to uncertainties and might not perform as intended. Therefore, to reduce this sensitivity, performance robustness assessment of low-energy buildings considering uncertainties should be assessed in the design phase. The probability of occurrences of these uncertainties are usually unknown and hence, scenarios are essential to assess the performance robustness of buildings. Therefore, a non-probabilistic robustness assessment methodology, based on scenario analysis, is developed to identify robust designs. Maximum performance regret calculated using the minimax regret method is used as the measure of performance robustness. In this approach, the preferred robust design is based on optimal performance and performance robustness.The proposed methodology is demonstrated using a case study with a policymaker as the decision maker. The proposed methodology can be used by designers and consultants to aid decision makers in the design phase to identify robust low-energy building designs that deliver preferred performance in the future operation.

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“…low and high IHG) on a performance indicator differ significantly from each other or not. In this study, scenarios in which 1-p > .95 are assumed to be sensitive [49]. Fig.…”

Section: Detailed Description Of Proposed Methodologymentioning

confidence: 99%

A methodology for performance robustness assessment of low-energy buildings using scenario analysis

2018

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“…Silva and Ghisi, examined the discrepancies in the simulation results due to simplifications in the geometry of a computer model [50]. Gaetani et al [51,52], investigated the uncertainty and sensitivity of building performance predictions to different aspects of occupant behaviour, by separating influential and noninfluential factors. Kokogiannakis et al [53], compared the simplified methods used for compliance as described in ISO 13790 standard with two detailed modelling programs (i.e.…”

Section: Building Modelling Simulation and Uncertaintymentioning

confidence: 99%

The modelling gap: Quantifying the discrepancy in the representation of thermal mass in building simulation

Mantesi

Hopfe

Cook

et al. 2018

Building and Environment

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“…This paper presents the outcome of a research directed towards the development of an approach for fit-for-purpose OB modelling in BPS. A number of steps of this research are based on a body of previously published work (Gaetani, Hoes, and Hensen 2016a, 2016b, but the complete approach is presented in this paper for the first time as a comprehensive methodology that can be readily applied to a variety of case studies and design questions. While the previous works were focusing on different levels of sensitivity analysis to determine the influential aspects of OB, guidelines for modelling are provided here.…”

Section: Need For Fit-for-purpose Occupant Behaviour Modelling In Bpsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The methods presented in (Gaetani, Hoes, and Hensen 2016b) and (Gaetani, Hoes, and Hensen 2018) (namely the Impact Indices Method and the Diversity Patterns Method including the Mann-Whitney U test), form the core of the FFP-OBm approach and allow for the identification of OB influential aspects. Then, the user of the stepwise approach can decide to reduce the epistemic uncertainty connected with such aspect(s) (where possible), or to refine the OB model.…”

Section: The Ffp-obm Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The term 'diversity patterns' indicates (high/low) possible variations of uncertain aspects of OB to mimic diversity, and are implemented by means of simple schedules or other built-in deterministic software assumptions. Applying diversity patterns to a building model equates to testing the possible sensitivity of the results to a particular aspect of OB (Gaetani, Hoes, and Hensen 2016b). This step is highly relevant as the sensitivity of the results to the various aspects of OB will be strictly related to the assumptions made here.…”

Section: • Step 1 / Start: Problem Definitionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A stepwise approach for assessing the appropriate occupant behaviour modelling in building performance simulation

Gaetani

Hoes

Hensen

2020

Journal of Building Performance Simulation

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Occupant behaviour (OB) is recognized as a leading source of uncertainty in building performance predictions. Neglecting the potential influence of uncertainties on building performance could result in erroneous decision-making during the design phase. Therefore, it is essential that uncertainties are appropriately considered within building performance simulation (BPS) models. As for OB, there are various approaches to model occupant presence and actions in BPS tools. Literature shows that the appropriate modelling approach depends on the object and purpose of the simulation, which makes it difficult to favour a method over another a priori. Moreover, there is very little support for selecting the most appropriate modelling approach. As a result, OB is modelled in practice in various ways, mostly dictated by intuition and habit. This study builds on previous literature to introduce and test a complete approach for appropriate OB modelling. The method can be generalized and readily applied to design questions.

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On the sensitivity to different aspects of occupant behaviour for selecting the appropriate modelling complexity in building performance predictions

Cited by 21 publications

References 23 publications

A methodology for performance robustness assessment of low-energy buildings using scenario analysis

A methodology for performance robustness assessment of low-energy buildings using scenario analysis

The modelling gap: Quantifying the discrepancy in the representation of thermal mass in building simulation

A stepwise approach for assessing the appropriate occupant behaviour modelling in building performance simulation

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