On the spatial correlation of international conflict initiation and other binary and dyadic dependent variables

Luo, Shali; Miller, J. Isaac

doi:10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2013.10.004

Cited by 3 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 44 publications

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“…To economize space, we do not provide the details of how to construct weight matrices boldWd, boldWo and boldWw. (see Luo and Miller, 2014; LeSage and Pace, 2008). As explained above, the left hand side of equation (3) represents the logged value of potential trade.…”

Section: Model Specificationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Do trade flows interact in space? Spatial origin-destination modeling of gravity

Luo

Choi²

2022

ITPD

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PurposeThis study proposes spatial origin-destination threshold Tobit to address spatial interdependence among bilateral trade flows while accounting for zero trade volumes.Design/methodology/approachThis model is designed to capture multiple forms of spatial autocorrelation embedded in “directional” trade flows. The authors apply this improved model to export flows among 32 Asian countries in 1990.FindingsThe empirical results indicate the presence of all three types of spatial dependence: exporter-based, importer-based and exporter-to-importer-based. After further considering multifaceted spatial correlation in bilateral trade flows, the authors find that the effect of conventional trade variables changes in a noticeable way.Research limitations/implicationsThis finding implies that the standard gravity model may produce biased estimates if it does not take spatial dependence into account.Originality/valueThis paper attempts to offer an improved model of the standard gravity model by taking spatial dependence into account.

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Section: Model Specificationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Do trade flows interact in space? Spatial origin-destination modeling of gravity

Luo

Choi²

2022

ITPD

Self Cite

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“…For the observation data of regional interactions, each observation value has a specific origin point and destination point, called origin-destination flow (OD flow). OD flow is widely used in the field of economy [1][2][3] , transportation [4][5][6][7] and international relationship [8][9][10][11] . Generally, OD flows depend on not only the location of origin and destination but also the regional distances [1,[12][13][14] , which brings additional challenges for mathematical modeling.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial Correlation Analytical Method of OD Flow in Freight Transport: a Case Study of China

Wei¹,

Mao²,

Chen³

et al. 2016

Proceedings of the 2016 International Conference on Civil, Transportation and Environment

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Commodity and information interaction between regions are becoming more and more intense. The data of origin-destination flow (OD flow) is the observation of the interaction between paired regions. Each observed value of OD flow is related to an original point and a destination point in space, which brings enormous challenge in the establishment of mathematical model. In spatial interaction models, it is usually supposed that there is a certain relation (often the linear) between regional interaction and special distance, which may result in the inconsistence between data characteristics and model hypotheses. Based on the general form of traditional spatial autocorrelation indicators, a novel indicator system consisting of global and local indicators of spatial correlation for the origin-destination flow (OD flow) is proposed in this paper, and further the corresponding Z tests for the significance judgment are also derived under the null hypotheses of spatial uniformity and normal distribution. Finally, the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed methodology are demonstrated by case studies of the railway freight exchange flows in Chinese mainland 2004. Through the proposed method, nodes in the freight transport network are classified to four types: global point, local point, generation point and attraction point.

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Militarized Conflict, Trade, and Economic Development in a Structural Equation Model With Spatial Considerations

Mansury

Kim

2023

International Regional Science Review

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While conflict pervades virtually every aspect of society, there have been relatively few crossovers between Regional Science and Peace Science. This paper pays tribute to Walter Isard, pioneer of peace science research, and Kieran Donaghy, who has contributed to research on arms race dynamics and macroeconomic stability. We review studies that examine the impact of (i) trade on conflict, (ii) the economy on militarized disputes, and (iii) conflict on economic development. The analysis develops a structural equation model (SEM) to test the hypotheses simultaneously using the Correlates of War project data. Consistent with the liberal proposition, we found that the pacifying effect of trade is robust across alternative SEM specifications. Controlling for standard explanatory variables, the SEM estimates reveal that the indirect impact of economic development on conflict mediated by trade is statistically significant at the 0.1-percent level. Trade is, therefore, a critical intervening variable that transforms conflict-inducing economic expansion into a pacifying influence on militarized disputes. The spatial version of the SEM confirms that democracies do not attack each other. While trade does not appear to have a local spillover effect on conflict, proximity to neighboring democracies does lead to fewer conflicts. The final hypothesis argues that conflict affects national economic performance, which Donaghy refuted in his 1995 Conflict Management and Peace Science paper. Consistent with Donaghy’s finding, the estimates reject the claim that conflict disrupts economic stability. The conclusion section discusses the implications for Kieran Donaghy’s larger body of work.

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On the spatial correlation of international conflict initiation and other binary and dyadic dependent variables

Cited by 3 publications

References 44 publications

Do trade flows interact in space? Spatial origin-destination modeling of gravity

Do trade flows interact in space? Spatial origin-destination modeling of gravity

Spatial Correlation Analytical Method of OD Flow in Freight Transport: a Case Study of China

Militarized Conflict, Trade, and Economic Development in a Structural Equation Model With Spatial Considerations

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