On Uncertainty, Ambiguity, and Complexity in Project Management

Abstract

T his article develops a model of a project as a payoff function that depends on the state of the world and the choice of a sequence of actions. A causal mapping, which may be incompletely known by the project team, represents the impact of possible actions on the states of the world. An underlying probability space represents available information about the state of the world. Interactions among actions and states of the world determine the complexity of the payoff function. Activities are endogenous, in that they are the result of a policy that maximizes the expected project payoff.A key concept is the adequacy of the available information about states of the world and action effects. We express uncertainty, ambiguity, and complexity in terms of information adequacy. We identify three fundamental project management strategies: instructionism, learning, and selectionism. We show that classic project management methods emphasize adequate information and instructionism, and demonstrate how modern methods fit into the three fundamental strategies. The appropriate strategy is contingent on the type of uncertainty present and the complexity of the project payoff function. Our model establishes a rigorous language that allows the project manager to judge the adequacy of the available project information at the outset, choose an appropriate combination of strategies, and set a supporting project infrastructure-that is, systems for planning, coordination and incentives, and monitoring.

Gestão de projetos em empresas no Brasil: abordagem "tamanho único"?

“…Ambiguidade se refere à falta de consciência da equipe do projeto sobre certos eventos ou seus efeitos. Complexidade se refere à dificuldade de avaliar o efeito de uma ação específica no projeto devido à interação de diferentes ações com parâmetros de eventos (PICH; LOCH; MEYER, 2002).…”

“…Os estudos sobre abordagens adaptativas de gestão de projetos focam as diferenciações e classificações de projetos, as práticas adaptativas aos diferentes tipos de projetos e aos critérios de sucesso (PINTO; SLEVIN, 1988;MORRIS, 1994;PACKENDORFF, 1995;ATKINSON, 1999;PICH;LOCH;MEYER,2002;MILLS et al, 2002;JAAFARI, 2003;WESTERVELD, 2003;SHENHAR;DVIR, 2007;DONK;MOLLOY, 2008).…”

New product development projects evaluation under time uncertainty

“…According to Pich et al (2002), uncertainty is characterized by the random nature of a known parameter, while complexity is related to the difficulty of analytically reproducing the relations among key variables in the process. Ambiguity, in turn, is related to the lack of knowledge of the environment, in terms of variables and relations among them.…”

“…Ambiguity, in turn, is related to the lack of knowledge of the environment, in terms of variables and relations among them. Ambiguity and, sometimes, complexity are frequently denoted unforeseeable uncertainties, and some authors refer to them as unknown-unknowns (unk-unk) (e.g., Pich et al, 2002;and Sommer & Loch, 2004). The development of a new technology is frequently characterized by these three kinds of features, namely uncertainty, ambiguity, and complexity.…”

“…Based on such difference, Pich et al (2002) define the concept of adequacy of the available information about the state of the world and action effects. In addition, they classify adequacy as far as transition dynamics, payoff and information is concerned -all of which are extremely important in the choice of the most adequate approach to project management.…”