2020
DOI: 10.2807/1560-7917.es.2020.25.13.2000280
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Only strict quarantine measures can curb the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak in Italy, 2020

Abstract: Several Italian towns are under lockdown to contain the COVID-19 outbreak. The level of transmission reduction required for physical distancing interventions to mitigate the epidemic is a crucial question. We show that very high adherence to community quarantine (total stay-home policy) and a small household size is necessary for curbing the outbreak in a lockeddown town. The larger the household size and amount of time in the public, the longer the lockdown period needed.

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Cited by 331 publications
(297 citation statements)
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“…In a mathematical model done on the spread of COVID-19 in Italy, it was shown that without strict quarantine rules the pandemic could not be controlled and that the number of secondary cases increased in proportion to the size of households. According to the simulation, if the household is comprised of 2 people and full quarantine has been put in place, expected secondary cases are 3 within the 14-day period; with a household of 6, this number increases to 16 [12].…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…In a mathematical model done on the spread of COVID-19 in Italy, it was shown that without strict quarantine rules the pandemic could not be controlled and that the number of secondary cases increased in proportion to the size of households. According to the simulation, if the household is comprised of 2 people and full quarantine has been put in place, expected secondary cases are 3 within the 14-day period; with a household of 6, this number increases to 16 [12].…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…This reduction can mainly be explained by reduced number of contacts among people owing to movement restrictions. Studies on the impact of lockdown in other countries also reported reduction in reproductive number which translates in to flattening of the curve and delaying of peak (14)(15)(16)(17)(18)(19). Yet as mentioned earlier, the effective R0 estimations are dynamic and may change over age structure, time and nature of intervention.…”
mentioning
confidence: 94%
“…On March 9 th , the Italian Government implemented extraordinary measures to contain the spread of COVID-19 (Lazzerini & Putoto, 2020). Lockdown was enforced on all citizens, except for necessity, work in essential services, and health circumstances (Sjödin, Wilder-Smith, Osman, Farooq, & Rocklöv, 2020). More restrictive containment measures, the so-called 'Phase One' of the COVID-19 emergency plan, were implemented from March 9 th until May 4 th (Italian Ministry of Health, 2020).…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%