Opening up the black box of adaptation decision-making

Biesbroek, Robbert; Dupuis, Johann; Jordan, Andrew; Wellstead, Adam; Howlett, Michael; Cairney, Paul; Rayner, Jeremy; Davidson, Debra J.

doi:10.1038/nclimate2615

Cited by 104 publications

(87 citation statements)

References 7 publications

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“…making whilst recognising that organisations are not specifically considering changes above the 1.5-2°C thresholds. This is consistent with previous studies on the barriers, limits, and enablers of adaptation (Adger et al 2009;Biesbroek et al 2015), but raises important new questions about the still incipient usability of HECC information vis-á-vis information on more moderate levels of temperature increase, for most adaptationrelated decision-making processes.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 78%

“…Multiple conceptualisations around the barriers, limits, and enablers to adaptation action have been put forward in the literature for different scales and sectors (Lorenzoni et al 2007;Eisenack et al 2014;Jones et al 2014). Such concepts have also been challenged on various grounds, especially when extrapolated across societies and contexts (Adger et al 2009;Biesbroek et al 2015).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Are European decision-makers preparing for high-end climate change?

et al. 2018

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Despite the Paris Agreement target of holding global temperature increases 1.5 to 2°C above pre-industrial levels, high-end climate change (HECC) scenarios going beyond 4°C are becoming increasingly plausible. HECC may imply increasing climate variability and extremes as well as the triggering of tipping points, posing further difficulties for adaptation. This paper compares the outcomes of four concurrent European case studies (EU, Hungary, Portugal, and Scotland) that explore the individual and institutional conditions, and the information used to underpin adaptation-related decision-making in the context of HECC. The focus is on (i) whether HECC scenarios are used in current adaptation-related decision-making processes; (ii) the role of uncertainty and how climate and non-climate information is used (or not) in these processes; and (iii) the information types (including socio-economic drivers) commonly used and their limitations in relation to HECC scenarios. Decision-makers perceive HECC as having a low probability or distant occurrence and do not routinely account for HECC scenarios within existing climate actions. Decision-makers also perceive non-climate drivers as at least as important, in many cases more important, than climate change alone. Whilst more information about the implications of particular sectoral and cross-sectoral impacts is needed, climate change uncertainty is not a significant barrier to decision-making. Further understanding of individual and institutional challenges brought about by the 'squeeze' between adapting to HECC scenarios or to lower levels of temperature change (as those agreed in Paris) is essential to better contextualise the use of climate change information.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 78%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Are European decision-makers preparing for high-end climate change?

et al. 2018

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“…Adaptation assessments are needed to identify, evaluate, and prioritize adaptation opportunities, identify barriers that need to be overcome, and examine how adaptation decision-making processes work in specific contexts (Wise et al 2014;Biesbroek et al 2015;Champalle et al 2015). While a variety of approaches and decision support tools have been developed to this end, few have been applied to support adaptation decision-making generally or in a LCLUC context, with an absence of ''usable'' or ''decision-orientated'' science noted to be a major constraint to adaptation (Dilling and Lemos 2011;Ford and King 2015;Taylor and McAllister 2015).…”

Section: Human Adaptation To Climate and Land Changementioning

confidence: 99%

Grand Challenges in Understanding the Interplay of Climate and Land Changes

et al. 2017

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Half of Earth's land surface has been altered by human activities, creating various consequences on the climate and weather systems at local to global scales, which in turn affect a myriad of land surface processes and the adaptation behaviors. This study reviews the status and major knowledge gaps in the interactions of land and atmospheric changes and present 11 grand challenge areas for the scientific research and adaptation community in the coming decade. These land-cover and land-use change (LCLUC)-related areas include 1) impacts on weather and climate, 2) carbon and other biogeochemical cycles, 3) biospheric emissions, 4) the water cycle, 5) agriculture, 6) urbanization, 7) acclimation of biogeochemical processes to climate change, 8) plant migration, 9) land-use projections, 10) model and data uncertainties, and, finally, 11) adaptation strategies. Numerous studies have demonstrated the effects of LCLUC on local to global climate and weather systems, but these putative effects vary greatly in magnitude and even sign across space, time, and scale and thus remain highly uncertain. At the same time, many challenges exist toward improved understanding of the consequences of atmospheric and climate change on land process dynamics and services. Future effort must improve the understanding of the scale-dependent, multifaceted perturbations and feedbacks between land and climate changes in both reality and models. To this end, one critical cross-disciplinary need is to systematically quantify and better understand measurement and model uncertainties. Finally, LCLUC mitigation and adaptation assessments must be strengthened to identify implementation barriers, evaluate and prioritize opportunities, and examine how decisionmaking processes work in specific contexts.

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“…The quality of available governance and institutional systems presents serious limitations in enabling the interplay between AC and SL. Hence, the recent call for open system approaches in the study of SL allows for a better connection to the ideas of AC The interplay b etween social learning and adaptive capacity | 41 2 from socio-ecological systems theory in which governance arrangements and institutional mechanisms are considered key catalysts (Biesbroek et al, 2015).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…It requires comprehensive assessment that aims to understand the intricacy of the different causes that constrain CCA (Biesbroek et al, 2015). A key recommendation is, therefore, to enhance local policy capacities in Vietnam by establishing a clear legal mandate for adaptation that makes it a primary concern instead of a criterion to be considered in SEDPs.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Developing adaptive capacity in times of climate change in central rural Vietnam: exploring smallholders’ learning and governance

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Opening up the black box of adaptation decision-making

Cited by 104 publications

References 7 publications

Are European decision-makers preparing for high-end climate change?

Are European decision-makers preparing for high-end climate change?

Grand Challenges in Understanding the Interplay of Climate and Land Changes

Developing adaptive capacity in times of climate change in central rural Vietnam: exploring smallholders’ learning and governance

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