SummaryDevelopmental programming involves the accurate conversion of signaling levels and dynamics to transcriptional outputs. The transcriptional relay in the Notch pathway relies on nuclear complexes containing the coactivator Mastermind (Mam). By tracking these complexes in real time, we reveal that they promote formation of a dynamic transcription hub in Notch-ON nuclei which concentrates key factors including Mediator CDK module. The composition of the hub is labile and persists after Notch withdrawal conferring a memory that enables rapid reformation. Surprisingly, only a third of Notch-ON hubs progress to a state with nascent transcription, that correlates with Polymerase II and core Mediator recruitment. The probability is increased by a second signal. The discovery that target-gene transcription is probabilistic has far-reaching implications because it implies that stochastic differences in Notch pathway output can arise downstream of receptor activation.