Optimal test allocation strategy during the COVID-19 pandemic and beyond

Abstract

Testing for active SARS-CoV-2 infections is key to controlling the spread of the virus and preventing severe disease. A central public health challenge is defining test allocation strategies in the presence of limited resources. Inthis paper, we provide a mathematical framework for defining anoptimal strategy for allocating viral tests. The framework accounts for imperfect test results, selective testing in certain high-risk patient populations, practical constraints in terms of budget and/or total number of available tests, and the purpose of testing. Our method is not only useful for detecting infected cases, but can also be used for long-time surveillance to monitor for new outbreaks, which will be especially important during ongoing vaccine distribution across the world. In our proposed approach, tests can be allocated across population strata defined by symptom severity and other patient characteristics, allowing the test allocation plan to prioritize higher risk patient populations. We illustrate our framework using historical data from the initial wave of the COVID-19 outbreak in New York City. We extend our proposed method to address the challenge of allocating two different types of tests with different costs and accuracy (for example, the expensive but more accurate RT-PCR test versus the cheap but less accurate rapid antigen test), administered under budget constraints. We show how this latter framework can be useful to reopening of college campuses where university administrators are challenged with finite resources for community surveillance. We provide a R Shiny web application allowing users to explore test allocation strategies across a variety of pandemic scenarios. This work can serve as a useful tool for guiding public health decision-making at a community level and adapting to different stages of an epidemic, and it has broader relevance beyond the COVID-19 outbreak.